Two Up, Two Down – FC Insights Season Long Fantasy Football
The NFL Draft came and went last weekend, giving us a much needed sports fix for three days. It was interesting to get a look at the rookies that will be coming into the league and where they ended up! Today’s piece is going to focus on the fantasy football draft stock for four players, two who saw their 2020 fortunes rise as a result of not seeing a potential replacement/competition added to the mix, and two that are now likely to see a cut into their touches, resulting in a negative outlook for their 2020 fortunes!
Let’s dive into it….
TE Mike Gesicki, MIA
There were some concerns for Gesicki heading into the draft with many wondering if he would receive competition from the Dolphins front office for snaps in the slot – and by not drafting a WR until very late with QB, likely to turn WR Malcolm Perry – Gesicki has a pretty clear path to being heavily involved in the Dolphins passing attack. Don’t get me wrong, he was slated to be a key cog in their aerial attack regardless, but by not drafting a wideout, the floor for Gisecki rose significantly. He is currently going off the board as the TE14 according to expert rankings on FantasyPros, and I think he will finish the year easily in the top 10, with top 6 upside if he can build on his play down the stretch that saw him haul in 5 TD’s in the final six Dolphins games last year. Over the final nine games last year he saw at least six targets in all but one of those contests (the game he didn’t he saw 5 targets) – and I expect that trend to continue into the 2020 season. I love the value on him right now for where he is being drafted.
RB Miles Sanders, PHI
I thought the Eagles would add a late round RB to the mix – and while they still could add a veteran FA to bolster their depth at the position, all things are pointing to Sanders and Boston Scott as the 1-2 punch in the Philly backfield. Sanders should see RB1 volume, and the dual-threat back is poised to have a monster season. With a current expert consensus ranking of 24th (RB13) on FantasyPros, I would gladly snatch up Sanders in the middle of the second round – and if he falls to the 2/3 turn, you are getting a steal. Once Jordan Howard went down with an injury last season, we saw what Sanders could do with full usage – and I expect him to be leaned on heavily in all aspects of the offence in 2020. You can likely get him after the likes of RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire and RB Aaron Jones, as well as WR’s Kenny Golladay and WR Mike Evans – and I think that Sanders has a better fantasy season than all those options in 2020. His draft price will likely rise – but for now, don’t be afraid to leap up and grab him a little early to lock him in.
RB Damien Williams, KC
I wrote up Williams as an ‘up’ in the last Two Up, Two Down column under the premise that I didn’t think the Chiefs were going to take a RB early. Well, better to address it now and get it out of the way. I don’t think that Edwards-Helaire will live up to his current expert ranking on FantasyPros – but there is no question that it will be a big blow to Williams’ fantasy outlook in 2020. I’ll likely scoop up a fair amount of Williams in the middle rounds for the upside play in case he manages to keep the job (similar to the Jordan Howard/Miles Sanders scenario before Howard got hurt a year ago) – but expectations must be tempered for Willams after the selection at the end of the first round by KC of CEH.
RB Marlon Mack, IND
Mack will still get some run for the Colts, but over his two years as the feature back for Indy – his fantasy production has been rather volatile. He makes hay in games where the Colts are playing with the lead against poor opponents, and generally is disappointing from a fantasy standpoint in all other game scripts. He only cleared the century mark on the ground 3x in 2019 – and with the selection of RB Jonathan Taylor – I don’t think Mack will have a chance of sniffing the 249 carries he saw a year ago without a significant injury to Taylor. I expect Mack to see a significant workload reduction, and unlike with Williams above – I will not be targeting Mack in the middle rounds. He’s fallen significantly on my draft boards with the selection of Taylor, to the point where I would rather draft the likes of RB Jordan Howard, RB Matt Breida, and even RB Damien Williams, all of whom I think have higher ceilings than Mack – who I believe to have limited upside for the 2020 season at this point in time,.
If you have any questions for me, or if you think I’m an idiot and want to tell me just that – you can find me on twitter @bradsgotmoxy.