MMA ON DRAFTKINGS – UFC FIGHT NIGHT 170 – March 14, 2020

DFS GOES ON


Luckily for DFS fans, Dana White and the UFC are determined to soldier on, even if it’s without fans for the time being. We’re going to look at some of my favorite value plays for this week’s insights.

KEVIN LEE (DK $8,300) – Lee’s salary here is hard to believe. He is currently a -153 favorite and is -110 to win within the distance. Clearly the concern one might have is that he has lost three of his last five fights, but this hasn’t stopped the oddsmakers from giving him the nod against the Brazilian fighter Charles Oliveira. Lee won’t have to contend with a Brazilian crowd, however. Due to coronavirus concerns, the fight will be in front of arena staff only. Lee will have to contend with Oliveira’s submission skill if he intends to survive this one, but should manage to score well if he can keep things on his feet.

Caveman’s advice: With no home crowd to support Oliveira, Lee’s chances are greatly improved. At just above average salary, Lee is a bargain for a fighter who is minus money to win inside the distance. Even if this fight were to go the distance, Lee will have five rounds of action to accumulate scoring. At this price, Lee deserves heavy play in multi-entry contests.

(At the time of this writing, Kevin Lee is -153 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 76.11 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

BEA MALECKI (DK $7,100) – Bea is a bit of a stretch here, but her low salary balances out her risk. She is currently a small dog at +136 on the money line. In her UFC debut, she submitted Duda Santana in the second round. She has the potential to finish and that’s good news when rostering a fighter at a cheap salary. Her opponent, Veronica Macedo, is coming off her first UFC victory. In her three previous fights within the octagon, she lost by submission, decision and KO. Macedo was much hyped coming into the UFC and was salaried at $9,500 in her debut against Ashlee Evans-Smith. Smith KO’d Macedo in the third round of that fight.

Caveman’s advice: When filling out the bottom of you lineups, look to Malecki for a potential win at a low salary. She is a dog but she faces an overrated Macedo and has the submission skills to make things happen. Use her over the likes of Demian Maia who comes in above her in salary yet is a bigger dog on Saturday.

(At the time of this writing, Bea Malecki is +136 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 49.58 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

MAYRA BUENO SILVA (DK $8,500) – Silva is my top value play on Saturday. At just $8,500 in salary, she brings a strong submission threat to the octagon. She debuted in the UFC against a good fighter in Gillian Robertson and submitted her in the first round. She will be coming in under the radar as this is just her second UFC fight, but in her pro career she is undefeated with 4 of her 5 wins coming in round number one. This includes her win over Robertson and her submission win in the Contender Series just 62 seconds in.

Caveman’s advice: Silva has a limited sample size, but her upside is big for this one. Her opponent, Maryna Moroz is more experienced but has lost to the better fighters she’s faced. Silva is worth a significant amount of play in multi-entry contests and has a big ceiling at a moderate price.

(At the time of this writing, Marya Bueno Silva is -147 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 63.48 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

That’s all for this week’s insights. Good luck and stay safe!

 

 

About Rob

Since getting out of the casino business, Rob has been playing DFS regularly with a focus on MMA and NASCAR. He now lives in Denver, CO.

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