Diving deep into player ownership expectations for 3/11/20 NBA DFS contests.
In this article, we are going to look at the projected most popular player at each position using Awesemo’s ownership projections and determine if the popular play is what we like to call Good Chalk or players that you should be playing or Bad Chalk or players that you should be underweight on. We will be using FanDuel for this article due to the multiple position eligibility for most players on DraftKings
Keep in mind that this article is done mid-day for each large slate and ownership projections can change sometimes drastically as the day goes on.
Verdict: Undecided – Though this is just a six-game slate the PG position is pretty deep tonight with Doncic, Young, Fox, Ball, Murray, and Paul all on the slate. Despite Young being projected for 35% ownership, there are really several different routes we can take here. We do get the Hawks with the highest team total on the board tonight and a team that Young has handled this year. Against the Knicks, in their two previous meetings, Young has scored over 40 points in each of those two games and is averaging 45 points, 2.5 rebounds, 10.5 assists, a steal, and 61.75 fantasy points in those games. I think Young is the best high priced option on the board tonight but there are unique ways to attack the PG position.
Verdict: Undecided/Bad Chalk – Despite being questionable, Butler holds 30% projected ownership. Butler was bothered by a toe injury on Sunday and caused him to miss practice yesterday. These things make you think he may trend more towards doubtful. I think regardless if Butler plays tonight or not, I will take it easy on this one as the even if at full health the Heat rotations aren’t the prettiest. If he is active and at full strength, I think it is a fine play, but not one I foresee breaking a slate open.
Verdict: Good Chalk – The Sixers are still without Embiid and Simmons and Josh Richardson will be limited in this one. Harris has played heavy minutes in the absence of Embiid and Simmons and has seen a usage rate near 30%, which is about 10% higher than his season average. We have been getting around 21 attempted shots per game over the last five games and Harris is averaging over 26 points, 8 rebounds, and four assists per game with Simmons and Embiid off the floor.
Verdict: Bad Chalk – With a matchup against the Hawks we are seeing two Knicks bigs make this list today as chalky options. We will touch on the second in a minute, but first, we have Julius Randle. Randle has been a bit hit or miss, with no real ceiling game as of late. That isn’t to say there isn’t value in a play like Randle, in fact, looking back at the last time these two met Randle went off for 61 fantasy points. Though it should be noted this game went to OT and Randle played 46 minutes. Since that game the Knicks have played 11 times with Randle falling below 4.5x value on his salary four of them and only cracking 6x value once. I believe this to be a higher floor option given the matchup, but with no real steal/block upside the ceiling here is limited unless we get an outlier of a game. I understand the appeal of Randle here, but I am not paying up for a Knicks player tonight (or possibly ever)
Verdict: Bad Chalk – Robinson makes this article for the first time all season as the field seems to be attacking the Hawks bigs, which is a strategy I have deployed all year. The problem with the Knicks is they refuse to start Robinson, giving Taj Gibson starts over him and Bobby Portis clogs up the PF/C rotation. In fact, Portis has been the best fantasy Knick over the past week and is $1,500 cheaper than Robinson. If you are an NBA fan then you already know the Knicks are a bit of a mess and trying to nail the one guy in their rotation to have the monster fantasy night is more of one. Will it be Payton? Barrett? Maybe it is Taj Gibson night? How about Frank Ntilikina playing 30 minutes and hitting 11.5x value? It might seem simple on paper, but with Randle, Portis, Gibson, Robinson all active, I don’t want any part of any of them.