UFC 248 – March 7, 2020

BEST VALUES UNDER $9K


The UFC returns to Las Vegas with some great fights in store. This week, we will take a look at some of the best values in DFS contests on Saturday. To be clear, I define value as a ratio of projected points to salary. Four fighters stick out as solid value under $9,000 in salary and for this week’s insights we will take a look at these fighters.

BENEIL DARIUSH (DK $8,700) – From March of 2017 to March of 2018, Beneil Dariush had a three fight slide where he managed just one draw and two losses. His stock was at an all time low at that point. Since then, he has rebounded in a major way. He is 3-0 since then, averaging 102.3 FPPF in that time with one win by unanimous decision and two submission victories. He will square off against Drakkar Klose who will face his toughest UFC opponent to date in Dariush. Klose is 5-1 in the UFC but Dariush is the favorite on Saturday. In his seventeen professional victories, Dariush has won eight by submission.

Caveman’s advice: Klose has yet to be in a fight that ended via submission. Clearly, he will aim to keep on his feet against a fighter with the submission skills of Beneil Dariush. Klose’s takedown defense will be put to the test on Friday. If Dariush is able to take the fight to the mat, look for him to finish this fight with a submission. Dariush has big score potential and deserves play in multi-entry contests. Give him 40-50% exposure in lineups on Saturday.

(At the time of this writing, Beneil Dariush is -170 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 62.96 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

LI JINGLIANG (DK $8,600) – Over his last seven fights, Jingliang is 6-1 with four of his six victories over that span coming by way of KO. He scored over 100 FP in each of those four fights. His opponent, Neil Magny, is 3-3 over his last six fights with all of his losses over that span coming before the final bell. In that time he was KO’d twice and submitted once. He has not fought since being KO’d back in November of 2018.

Caveman’s advice: Look for Jingliang to find a KO against Magny who struggles to go the distance against high level opponents. Jingliang is a top value play at a salary well below $9K. Give Jingliang heavy play in multi-entry contests and feel confident in using him as a top value play in cash as well. In multi-entry contests look to give him 60-70% exposure.

(At the time of this writing, Li Jingliang is -178 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 66.38 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

DERON WINN (DK $8,300) – Winn is a former collegiate All-American wrestler who has been mentored by Daniel Cormier, also a former wrestler. Winn has found his place in MMA by adding KO level striking to his ability to ground and pound with the best. He faces Gerald Meerschaert who is on the decline, losing three of his last four. Meerschaert is a submission specialist with 22 of his 30 career wins coming by submission. At this point, a submission appears to be his only chance at victory. Winn’s wrestling background and stocky frame will make this a near impossibility for Meerschaert. Winn will be looking to land his fists and find a KO. Winn is 6-1 as a pro with four first round KO’s to his credit.

Caveman’s advice: Meerschaert looks to be on the path to retirement. He finds himself in the worst possible matchup against a wrestler who can easily outstrike him. At just $8,300 in salary, Winn has a very good chance to score a KO here. I like Winn in both cash and multi-entry contests on Saturday and recommend a heavy dose of him in multi-entry contests. Give him 70-80% exposure against a declining Gerald Meerschaert.

(At the time of this writing, Deron Winn is -147 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 60.09 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

WEILI ZHANG (DK $8,900) – Weili Zhang is the most dominant fighter in her weight class and has been for twenty straight fights. She is undefeated since 2014 and has dominated the best strawweights the UFC has to offer. Her opponent, former champ Joanna Jedrzejczyk, has struggled of late losing three of her last five fights. She is a quality striker, but Zhang is a higher quality striker. On the ground, Zhang will dominate. In her twenty victories, Zhang has gone to decision only three times, with 10 KO’s and 7 submissions to her credit.

Caveman’s advice: Zhang is a great play for both cash and multi-entry contests on Saturday. She can accumulate points by strikes as well as finish on both the ground and her feet. She has five rounds of action to accumulate points and can finish within one. Her scoring potential has a very high ceiling in this one. Give her 70-90% exposure for this one.

(At the time of this writing, Weili Zhang is -174 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 67.31 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!

About Rob

Since getting out of the casino business, Rob has been playing DFS regularly with a focus on MMA and NASCAR. He now lives in Denver, CO.

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