UFC FIGHT NIGHT 168 – February 22, 2020

APPLYING OWNERSHIP PROJECTIONS IN MME CONTESTS


In this week’s insights I will be looking only at the bottom half of fighters according to their ownership projections. Finding low ownership fighters increase your potential of unique lineups in big field tournaments. I will also only be looking at fighters at or below average in salary. Here are three fighters that fit the bill and have the best potential at winning on Saturday.

JIMMY CRUTE (DK $8,000) – Crute is a slight underdog to Michal Oleksiejczuk and both fighters are coming back from a loss in their last fights. For Crute this was his first professional loss and he will be trying to get back on track. Prior to his loss he had two first round victories by KO and one submission victory. He is 10-1 overall as a professional and of those ten victories only three were by decision. Oleksiejczuk is 14-3 and two of his three losses were by submission. Crute has three submission victories to his credit and will look to add a fourth this Saturday. Expect Crute, the Aussie, to find favor with the New Zealand crowd over his Polish opponent.

Caveman’s advice: Crute is projected to be used in less than a quarter of lineups on Saturday. He has a below average salary despite a record with just one loss and the benefit of have the crowd behind him. He has finishing potential and should offer a chance for a big score. Those looking to leverage the field should give Crute 40-50% exposure in MME contests.

(At the time of this writing, Jimmy Crute is +104 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 54.07 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

BRAD RIDDELL (DK $7,800) – Riddell will be a crowd favorite on Saturday fighting in his home country of New Zealand. In his UFC debut back in October, he scored a dominating win over Jamie Mullarkey scoring 100.5 FP in the win by unanimous decision. He will definitely have his hands full with the Russian fighter Magomed Mustafaev in his second fight, but he does have the scoring potential necessary when taking a shot with an underdog. He opened as a big underdog but the betting money has been all over Riddell and he is currently down to +122 in this fight.

Caveman’s advice: Riddell is projected to get less than 20% usage in DFS contests on Saturday. He is an active fighter who can put up points and fights with the support of the crowd. Those looking to leverage the field should be looking at Riddell due to his low ownership and below average salary. Double the field usage and give him up to 40% exposure in MME contests.

(At the time of this writing, Brad Riddell is +124 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 50.50 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

KEVIN AGUILAR ($8,100) – Kevin Aguilar vs Zubaira Tukhugov is the most closely matched fight of the evening according to the betting lines and Aguilar is not projected to get many lineups on Saturday. Aguilar’s stock may have fallen a bit due to losing his last time out to Dan Ige. Those who are paying attention will recognize that Ige is a fighter on the rise and this loss was to a quality opponent. Tukhugov is winless in his last two fights. Aguilar is coming in as the favorite while carrying the same salary as his opponent. As a professional he has ten KO’s to his credit.

Caveman’s advice: Aguilar is projected to be used in less than 15% of lineups on Saturday. He is a fighter that is favored to win and has demonstrated the ability to finish his opponents. He presents an excellent leverage opportunity on Saturday and should be given about 50% exposure for those looking to do so.

(At the time of this writing, Kevin Aguilar is -120 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 58.25 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!

About Rob

Since getting out of the casino business, Rob has been playing DFS regularly with a focus on MMA and NASCAR. He now lives in Denver, CO.

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