The Primer – NBA DFS Expert Analysis – February 21st, 2020

Featuring in-depth analysis to help you crack the winning code for the NBA DFS slate on February 21, 2020.

In this article, we are going to preview a few of the most important teams to help you narrow down your player pool and focus in on the big decisions of the night.

Boston Celtics

Top Plays

Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, Gordon Hayward

No Kemba Walker for the Celtics tonight against the Timberwolves but the Celtics are still big favorites as KAT is out for the Wolves. Brown/Smart/Hayward will pick up the slack here with Hayward averaging 1.09 FPPM, Brown at 1.05 FPPM and Smart at that same 1.05 FPPM rate as well. This is a pace up spot for the Celtics so all should be looking to beat those year-to-date numbers. The biggest question about the Celtics isn’t their skill level or the situation but rather do you want to eat the big ownership numbers they will have attached to them.

Portland Trailblazers

Top Plays

CJ McCollum, Carmelo Anthony, Hassan Whiteside, Gary Trent Jr., Anfernee Simons

With Damian Lillard out this one is as simple as it gets, load up on all the Portland Trailblazers in a must win game against the New Orleans Pelicans. From the looks of it, Portland is primed to run a 8 man rotation tonight meaning everyone in it should be looking at around 30+ minutes making it a prime value and star value situation. The news only gets better when you look at the game total as it’s 238.5 and the Pelicans are only 5 point favorites. I’m not sure you could talk me into fading the Blazers tonight unless you paid me the entry fees to do it with, that’s how good this spot is.

New Orleans Pelicans

Top Plays

Brandon Ingram, Jrue Holiday, Lonzo Ball

I’ve seen a ton of talk about the Blazers (and for great reason) but the Pelicans side has gone completely untalked about and I’m not sure why. This game is as much a must win for the Pelicans as it is the Blazers and they are actually favored and have more motivation to make the playoffs than the Blazers. Ingram and Holiday are at near season low in prices and the match-up doesn’t get much better than the Blazers. Sure, Zion definitely takes a ton of usage away so all of these guys can’t hit their ceilings together but 1-2 of these guys can go 7-8x and be on the winning GPP team tonight.

Memphis Grizzlies

Top Plays

De’Anthony Melton, Brandon Clarke

Melton and Clarke in the unique situation on a back-to-back where their status actually helps them. As non-starters if the game gets out of hand they aren’t going to get pulled in a blowout but they are close enough to the starters where if they play well they could close (as Melton did last night). Their prices are those of punt role players but both Melton and Clarke have very high usage (1.10 FPPM for Melton and 1.12 FPPM for Clarke) when they get the minutes and tonight against the Lakers they have more ways than usual to get that minute ceiling.

 


 

About CJ Kaltenbach

CJ has been around a long time having started playing DFS in 2014. He focuses on MLB/NBA/NFL but has become quite passionate about the XFL. CJ is originally from Boston (explains his die-hard Boston sports fandom) but currently lives in St. Louis. CJ can be reached on Twitter @TheSeigeDFS

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