GETTING OVER HEARTBREAK
Last week’s decisions were questionable at best and perhaps some of you out there found yourself on the wrong end of one of these controvesial decisions. One way to save yourself from heartache this Valentine’s weekend is to look for fighters that take fights into their own hands and won’t let a fight go to decision. Here are three fights I like to score well, with plenty of early finish potential and that aren’t likely to break your heart again.
Miller’s last four fights have all ended in round number one. In those fights he finished his opponent by submission within the first half of the first round. He faces Scott Holtzman who, despite winning his last two fights by KO, saw six of his last eight fights reach a decision. This fight figures to have high scoring potential for the victor as Miller can submit fights quickly and Holtman can accumulate scoring both with strikes and takedowns. I do believe Holtzman won’t try to spend a lot of time on the mat here, so look for him to try to keep the fight on the feet. Both fighters score well in winning efforts averaging 109.7 FPPF and 101.8 FPPF for Holtzman and Miller respectively over their last three wins.
Caveman’s advice: Give both guys love in multi-entry contests with a 70/30 split favoring Holtzman who should be able to avoid a submission. Miller needs some play as well though, because if he does pull it off, it will likely be a quick submission victory. Overall I would give this fight a healthy 50-60% exposure as both fighters are priced well.
(At the time of this writing, Scott Holtzman is -141 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 59.50 on Fantasy Cruncher. Jim Miller is +116 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 51.19 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
Macy is not only the biggest favorite of the night but she is big favorite to finish this fight inside the distance. Despite losing her last time out, in her other three UFC fights she won within the first two rounds by way of two KO’s and a submission. Her opponent Shanna Young does have three of her seven wins by submission, so Macy will need to exercise caution, but this looks to be a brief fight with the oddsmakers making it a slight favorite to be finished within the first one a half rounds.
Caveman’s advice: I wouldn’t bother to hedge against Macy in any contest on Saturday. Look for a quick end to this one with a first round TKO being a very reasonable prediction for this one. Give Macy 50-70% exposure in multi-entry contests with her salary being her only limiting factor.
(At the time of this writing, Macy Chiasson is -885 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 81.81 on Fantasy Cruncher. Shanna Young is +575 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 31.45 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
Michel Pereira should be priced much higher than this. Diego Sanchez will be the home crowd’s favorite but he is clearly outmatched against this opponent. In his 23 career victories, Michel Pereira has 16 wins by submission or KO. Sanchez will likely come out strong but fade as the fight progresses. Look for Pereira to finish this one inside the distance where the oddsmakers have him a favorite to do so.
Caveman’s advice: At just $8,500 in salary, Pereira is a steal as a fighter favored to win by early conclusion. A small hedge on Sanchez in multi-entry contests is reasonable and I would give this fight 60-70% exposure with the vast majority of those lineups going to Pereira.
(At the time of this writing, Michel Pereira is -163 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 64.89 on Fantasy Cruncher. Diego Sanchez is +137 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 49.92 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!