The Primer – NBA DFS Expert Analysis – February 12th, 2020

Featuring in-depth analysis to help you crack the winning code for the NBA DFS slate on February 12, 2020.

In this article, we are going to go position by position breaking down the top plays and values for you but since it’s right before the All-Star Break and there are 65 injuries (and counting) on this eleven-game slate, I once again am going to focus on the teams that can make or break your slate.

Milwaukee Bucks

Top Plays

Eric Bledsoe, Kris Middleton, Marvin Williams

With Giannis taking another game to be with his newborn child, we are back to the same situation as Monday with the Bucks being very under-priced. Eric Bledsoe on Monday sported a 26% USG on his way to a 50 point fantasy night, while Kris Middleton sported a 32.1% USG on his way to 53 fantasy points (and his price went down on Fanduel). The ownership on both of these guys will be high (think 60%+ on FD, bit lower on DK where the prices got jacked up at least a little bit) but they are both elite plays. The one difference between this game and Monday is that Marvin Williams is expected to play. I’d expect him to play in the 24-28 minute range and he’s basically min-price across the industry. Other playable Bucks include, Brook Lopez, Donte DiVincenzo and Pat Connaughton.

Phoenix Suns

Top Plays

Cheick Diallo (if Ayton is out), Kelly Oubre Jr., Devin Booker

The Warriors are in operation tank mode with the #1 lottery odds at the moment (2 games “up” in the loss column), which makes this a perfect spot for a fast Suns team. Assuming Ayton is out (really no reason to rush him back with the All-Star Break to rest up), Cheick Diallo will be in for as many minutes as he can handle. As a 0.84 FPPM player he should be able to pay off his price quite easily. With Ayton out, Booker moves to 1.17 FPPM player on 30.3% USG, which is a nice bump when you get to face the Warriors on top of it. Finally, Kelly Oubre also gets a bump over 1 FPPM in minutes without Ayton on the floor and this type of up and down game against a turnover happy Warriors team fits his style.

New York Knicks

Top Plays

Elfrid Payton, Julius Randle

It’s not very often that the Knicks are favored but today is one of those days in a 228 total the Knicks are favored by two. Elfrid Payton has played well since the trade of Marcus Morris and has been locked into 30+ minutes the last eight games, this pace up match-up against the Wizards whom also have no rim protection is a dream for him. Julius Randle should also be safe from a minutes perspective having played 30+ minutes in each of the last ten games. After that it gets tricky after that as the Knicks have been playing twelve guys although there is value to be had if you can pick the right ones. Last game, Wayne Ellington and Reggie Bullock played a ton of minutes (the overtimes helped), but both are still quite cheap if you need some value or want to game stack the game. That being said I fully expect the Knicks to surround Randle/Payton with the hot hand so might be better to avoid everyone else entirely.

Portland Trailblazers

Top Plays

Damian Lillard, Hassan Whiteside

After the insane Damian Lillard hot-streak the Blazers have cooled off going 3-3 in their last six. Today, they draw a pace up spot against the Memphis Grizzlies. Lillard’s price has dropped and with the All-Star break after this game their is no reason why Portland shouldn’t run Lillard out there for 40+ minutes tonight to get a win they have to have in the playoff hunt. As amazing as Lillard has been, I’m sure it would be a shock to tell you that it’s actually Hassan Whiteside who leads the Blazers in FPPM (1.40 for Whiteside as compared to 1.30 for Lillard). The Blazers get blown out enough to keep Whiteside’s price down below 10k, so I keep on rostering him and he should be able to play big minutes as Memphis always has at least one big on the floor. If you are looking for some value, Carmelo, Ariza and Trent Jr. all are fairly cheap and should play big minutes but their usage varies a ton game-by-game as McCollum, Lillard and Whiteside eat up the vast majority of the usage, so gotta use your magic 8 ball to find the right one.

About CJ Kaltenbach

CJ has been around a long time having started playing DFS in 2014. He focuses on MLB/NBA/NFL but has become quite passionate about the XFL. CJ is originally from Boston (explains his die-hard Boston sports fandom) but currently lives in St. Louis. CJ can be reached on Twitter @TheSeigeDFS

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