Welcome to The Daily Tennis Trio. The goal of this article is to provide you with building blocks for roster construction on DraftKings and FanDuel. I will attempt to highlight the players in this article at a high, middle, and value tier. Note at the time of typing this FanDuel does not have a Tennis slate up and I will only be focusing on Draftkings.
Top Tier – Milos Raonic (DK: $9,900)
This is Raonic’s first match since his quarterfinal defeat at the hands of Novak Djokovic in the Australian Open, though he ran through some tough opponents to get there. Raonic swept Garin, Tsitsipas, and Cilic, firing an average of around 19 aces per match, including a 35 aces outburst. Raonic is the favorite to win this tournament and currently carries -400 odds to advance in this one. Raonic has a near 200 point ELO advantage over Kwon which implies around a 75% chance of advancing. With a slate of just ten games, this one sticks out to me as the best chance of a straight-set advancement.
As I have done in the past, the middle tier will be laid out as a general thought instead of focusing on one player since this is a 10-game slate. The “mid-tier” doesn’t exist much here as Kovalik, Ruud, and Johnson are the only ones who fall in the 8-9k pricing range. Kecmanovic is a step above at $9,400 and is a guy I like on this slate against a 38-year old Paolo Lorenzi. Lorenzi beat Kec last year at the US Open in a five-set thriller, though Kec’s form has been incredibly better to start 2020. This is a match of two guys at polar opposites in career path and I have a personal bias to the younger opponent. Casper Rudd squares off against Roberto Carballes Baena, who is fresh off an upset of Marco Cecchinato. Both of these guys carry similar ELO ratings, with the spread in them implying this will be a closer match than what price dictates. Baena is a guy I wouldn’t be against having tournament shares on. Steve Johnson holds a 3-1 head to head advantage over Andreas Seppi though with both in similar form and at odds that don’t bear being too exciting, this one has three sets written all over it. Both men also have losing record on indoor hard courts. There isn’t a glaring advantage in this middle pricing lane, so we will need to just try to build upon odds and value. I think in the end we see a lineup built around two sub 7k players and two 9k or above players be the optimal build. Borna Coric is $400 cheaper than his opponent in what is nearly a dead pick’em, with Coric carrying the rankings advantage. I believe Coric will end up being one of the highest owned players on the slate.
Potential Upset Tier – Felix Auger Aliassime (DK: $6,800)
With us already to the round of 16 in these tournaments, we are going to want to focus on the highest upside cheap value and that on this slate is FAA. FAA has a pedestrian year to start off 2020 with a 4-3 record, but two losses to guys he was favorited against in Gulbis and Herbert. Grigor Dimitrov is his quarterfinals opponent here and FAA ranks 21st in the world, while Dimitrov ranks 22nd. The form on both of these guys seems pretty average right now, as Dimitrov also has some bad losses on his resume this year in losses to Paul and Barrere. Dimitrov does carry an ELO advantage on hard courts, but lifetime head-to-head, FAA has the 1-0 edge (though it was on grass). Dimitrov is a -180 Vegas favorite that I feel is a bit higher than it should be given these two’s current path. This is a matchup of two streaky tennis players ranked right next to each other. For value on a 10-game slate, we take the $1,100 discount over an opponent in a match that feels like it is trending more near a pick’em.