Diving deep into player ownership expectations for 2/12/20 NBA DFS contests.
In this article, we are going to look at the projected most popular player at each position using Awesemo’s ownership projections and determine if the popular play is what we like to call Good Chalk or players that you should be playing or Bad Chalk or players that you should be underweight on. We will be using FanDuel for this article due to the multiple position eligibility for most players on DraftKings
Keep in mind that this article is done mid-day for each large slate and ownership projections can change sometimes drastically as the day goes on.
Verdict: Good Chalk – With Giannis slated to miss tonight’s game we will once again see the Bucks high powered offense run through Bledsoe and Middleton. The kicker to both here is neither got a price increase on Fanduel, so Bledsoe sits at just $6,700. With or without Giannis in the past eight games, Bledsoe has really found his stride again, but it also stems from George Hill being injured, which has added about five minutes to Bledsoe’s court time per game. With no Giannis on the floor, Bledsoe is averaging 28 points, 8 assists, and seven rebounds a game.
Verdict: Good Chalk – As I spoke above to Bledsoe not seeing a price increase with Giannis out, Middleton actually saw a decrease down to $7,200 from $7,400. Middleton has scored over 20 points in seven straight games and has cracked 5x value in six of his last seven. With no Giannis on the floor, Middleton becomes the usage leader in this offense seeing an uptick of around 10%. We can expect around 34 minutes of high usage play with over 20 shot attempts from Middleton tonight. With no price increases on these guys expect them to be 40% owned but in some of the better spots on the slate.
Verdict: Undecided – The SF position is pretty spread out with ownership projections right now, but Oubre is currently the leader. I have an inkling that this changes as the day goes on, but last time Oubre was in this write up and was chalk he went off for 56 fantasy points. Oubre came off the bench last game out due to an “internal” issue, which seems to be that he missed the team bus. I can only assume that this is settled and shouldn’t affect anything tonight but I will wait for some confirmation on that as that will have to be something to consider. What we do know is that DeAndre Ayton is likely to miss this game and the Suns are decimated by injuries with their big men. Cheick Diallo may be locked into as many minutes as he can handle tonight and if Oubre re-enters the starting lineup he may be forced to play the four a bit, but at worst should lock him into his normal 35-38 allotment of minutes.
Verdict: Bad Chalk – Labeling this bad chalk may come back to bite me, but the power forward position is very deep tonight with high, mid, and low tier options that should draw starts tonight. Sabonis isn’t being projected as overwhelming chalk as he is just at 25% right now, and the Bucks without Giannis are a bit more of an exploitable team when it comes to opposing big men, but the Pacers are running a team at full health right now. Sabonis just notched his fourth triple-double of the season last game out and has the ceiling to do so again. However as I speak to often, he is not going to fill up the stat sheet with steals or blocks which is a vital stat for big men to break their ceilings. Despite the 38 minutes on the floor and a triple-double last game, Sabonis’ usage rate was still under 20%, which highlights his efficiency. This isn’t a bad play, I just think there are other ways to build at this position on a large slate.
Update: Cheick Diallo is projected for over 50% ownership tonight, which makes sense given his price and minutes he is likely to see. God speed. I likely will not be fading this, but there is a potential edge if he was to absolutely bust. But at 3.7k, “absolute” bust would have to come from injury or foul trouble likely.
Verdict: Good Chalk – Playing a big man against Charolette has been a situation to take advantage of all season and tonight we get game two of the Towns-Russell friendship season. I personally want a bit more data of how Towns plays with an entirely new starting lineup around him in Hernangomez, Beasley, and Russell, but in the two games since the trade Towns has scored 54 and 46 fantasy points. Another thing we know is this team can score points and this team can give them up. Charolette plays at a slow pace, but the T-Wolves are still projected for 118 team points tonight. This should end up being an interestingly competitive game and Towns is projected towards the top of overall fantasy scorers for tonight in a great matchup.