Diving deep into player ownership expectations for 2/11/20 NBA DFS contests.
In this article, we are going to look at the projected most popular player at each position using Awesemo’s ownership projections and determine if the popular play is what we like to call Good Chalk or players that you should be playing or Bad Chalk or players that you should be underweight on. We will be using FanDuel for this article due to the multiple position eligibility for most players on DraftKings
Keep in mind that this article is done mid-day for each large slate and ownership projections can change sometimes drastically as the day goes on.
Verdict: Good Chalk – For just a small five-game slate we have a lot of high total games with three of them breaking the 230 mark. Lillard and the Blazers carry a 118 team total into New Orleans against the Pelicans team that allows 117 points per game. Lillard is in the midst of a career year with bests in field goal percentage, three-point percentage and points per game. The minutes and usage have stayed pretty consistent though we have seen the slight expectant dip with the return of CJ McCollum over this past week. This should be an uptempo game that benefits Lillard and somehow his price has managed to stay under $10,000 on Fanduel (for the time being). For such a small slate we have a lot of star power on this slate and if Lillard’s ownership stays around 30% then I have no problem chasing this play.
Verdict: Undecided – Though it is still early and this article is being done a bit earlier than normal, Harden is still projected for 32% ownership tonight. With Russell Westbrook healthy and active, paying up for Harden at over $11,000 has never been something I have gone out of my way to do. That isn’t tp say Harden doesn’t have great tournament upside today, it is more of a note that his usage will be split as when both are on the floor, Westbrook actually has a slight usage advantage over him.
Verdict: Undecided – The Celtics have been playing musical chairs with injuries over the past week though tonight it appears everyone will be back and healthy. With a full spectrum of players, we should see rotations go back to normal and leading up to the All Star break, possibly a few bodies taken a bit easier on. This makes locking down the correct Boston play a bit more difficult as they do carry a 117 team total, but have five or six guys now who will factor heavily into it. Brown is chalk right now because of the $5,900 price point. As the night goes on, we may get a bit more certainty here and maybe there is still a surprise rest announcement tonight, but as it stands now Walker, Smart, Brown, Tatum, Theis are all going to be active.
Verdict: Good Chalk – This play is revolving around the status of DeMar DeRozan but as it stands now, it seems DeRozan is more doubtful than questionable. With no DeRozan on the floor last night, Aldridge led the team with a massive 39% usage rate and 25 attempted field goals. This is generally what we can expect out of stars in the NBA, which is huge usage bumps when their counter-parts are ruled out. Aldridge is just $7,100 now and if DeRozan is ruled out I expect this to end up being the highest owned player on the slate, but likely for good reason. We have to consider the back to back here, but with the ASB on the horizon, I think Aldridge can battle through and retain his 35 minutes.
Verdict: Undecided – With a lot of high priced options tonight I can understand why Adams is popping in ownership at just $5,200. The Thunder center has played 29 minutes or higher in his last three games which is a bump from his recent standing of around 23 or 24. If Adams can see those minutes again tonight then he has a pretty good matchup with the Spurs who rank near the bottom in rebound percentage. I think throughout the rest of the year, Adams will always carry considerable risk, but if you can project him for minutes there will be times he is applicable at his price.