The Cruncher List for the Super Bowl: Game-By-Game Analysis

The Cruncher List for the Super Bowl NFL DFS Contests (Feb 2, 2020).

This week, we will do a deep dive into the Showdown slate for the Super Bowl!

San Francisco 49ers @ Kansas City Chiefs (-1), Projected Total: 54.5 points

San Francisco – Projected total: 26.75 points

The first thing you will have to decide when building line-ups this week will be if you think that the 49ers rushing attack will take over, like they have for most of the playoffs.  If you are in that camp, then fire up RB Raheem Mostert and don’t forget about RB Tevin Coleman and getting some exposure to him as it looks like he is ready to suit up after getting banged up during the 49ers playoff run.  If Coleman is close or at 100%, I expect the carries to be somewhat split between Mostert and Coleman in a 60/40 type split, with Mostert getting more of the work.  He will be a very popular option this week going up against a Chiefs defence than can be had by the power ground game – and while KC stopped Derrick Henry last game – the 49ers rushing attack is a different approach than what Tennessee brought to town.  Back to Mostert – he will be popular and rightly so after he gashed the Packers for 4 TD’s on 29 carries for 220 yards.  If the 49ers do fall behind in this game from a game script perspective, they will be forced to pass far more than the they had to in either of their playoff games thus far, and you’d see a severe down-tick in terms of backfield touches on the ground.

As far as the passing game goes, we haven’t seen much in the playoffs, but one things seems certain, and it is that WR Deebo Samuel is the number one option in the passing game with TE George Kittle checking in as the 1B option with WR Emmanuel Sanders as the clear third option.  His price point reflects that, costing only $5,200 – which screams value for his upside when compared with others priced in the same price range as him, but he could be worth a game theory fade (or underweight) as I expect the name to garner a fair amount of interest from an ownership standpoint.  QB Jimmy Garoppolo is priced very attractive in this one – and if you think the 49ers will run all over KC, get up early and not have to pass, it could be reasoned to leave him out of your pool.  If however – you feel that this game will be a back and forth affair where SF will turn to the air much more than they have in their previous two games, he’s a very strong value play at his price point for a QB on a showdown slate.  It’s not often you see a QB priced at $8k in a game with a projected total of 54.5 points.  If you are looking for a low-owned option, WR Kendrick Bourne has shown a nose for the end-zone at times, and in a limited volume pass offence, you could make a strong argument that for $3,400 – he could find his way into the endzone due to better match-ups than some of the more talented weapons that Garoppolo has at his disposal.

I for one and not really going to be on the kickers in this one…unless it is part of a MME strategy, in which case I think it is wise to include them in your player pool – however, you likely won’t want to have many rosters with both team’s kickers rostered.

Another key factor in this game will be the 49ers ability to get pressure with their front 4 without blitzing, which will be key in their attempt to stop Mahomes and company.  While I do think they’ll get home a few times and bring him down for a few sacks, I’m not overly bullish on the 49ers defence as a Showdown play – which I think is a fair approach given the projected total in this game.

The Cruncher List

Good Plays

Kansas City Chiefs – Projected total: 27.75 points

The Chiefs have a tough task this week, going up against the 49ers defence, however – when you look beyond the surface stats there is a lot of intrigue here.  First, the 49ers rank last in the league at defending 3 wide sets, something KC runs almost exclusively.  So, it really will come down to their OL being able to protect Mahomes, and him being able to find some spots where separation is created from his elite receiving options.  Mahomes is price prohibitive, but is an elite option this week, as is the case most weeks that he is under center.

A big decision you will have to make is who to roster out of the elite three weapons, WR Tyreek Hill, TE Travis Kelce and RB Damian Williams (though elite weapon could be a stretch, he’s a key cog in this line-up from a fantasy standpoint).  I tend to favour Hill and Williams in this game due to the fact that SF was one of the best in the league at defending the TE position throughout the season (5th fewest PPG against TE’s in the regular season), though I wouldn’t be shocked one bit to see Kelce bust out – it really depends on who the 49ers decide to gameplan to try and stop between Hill and Kelce.  While SF also has great numbers against RB’s and WR’s, I do think that they will ‘let’ KC try and beat them on the ground (they won’t), and Hill has game-breaking speed that could give nightmares to even the league’s best secondary units.

WR Sammy Watkins is a more affordable way to get another piece of the offence, and while his price point is more expensive than I thought it would be – you can get another piece of KC’s offence into most builds by including him in them.  I wouldn’t go nuts with exposure here as the range of outcomes for him is quite wide for a $7k spend however – he’s definitely worth including in your builds.  WR Mecole Hardman, priced at $2,200 screams slate winner if he can find the end-zone (on special teams or on offence), and opens up all kinds of options from a roster build standpoint.  With that said, he could also put up a zero due to his limited involvement in the offence…so buyer beware.

As mentioned above, I am not loading up on kickers – however, if you think that Mahomes and company will move the ball well and stall against a stout defence in the redzone, enter Harrison Butker.  If you ask me which kicker I prefer in this one, it is Butker over Gould.

The same holds true for the Chiefs DST over the 49ers DST.  I think Mahomes has well documented that he is much superior to Garoppolo in terms of ball security, and Hardman on special teams for the Chiefs is an elite weapon as well.  While the Chiefs defence isn’t as good as SF’s, I do prefer them from a DFS standpoint this week.

The Cruncher List

Good Plays

Best of luck to you and your line-ups this weekend – and enjoy the Super Bowl! 

We’d like to thank you for following along all season long for our NFL content and hope you and your friends and family enjoy the game!

 

About Brad

Brad hates the term fantasy sports expert, so instead he is someone who specializes in NFL, NHL and MLB DFS notes and analysis. He had a 68.2% win rate in 2015 NFL cash games to go along with a 83.5% win rate for the 2014 season. For NHL he had a 58.7% win rate in the 2015-16 season for cash games and a 66.2% win rate for the 2014-15 season. You can follow him on Twitter @bradsgotmoxy.

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