DraftKings MMA Mixed Martial Arts DFS Analysis Picks Plays Advice Strategy

UFC FIGHT NIGHT 166 – January 25, 2020

DOG DAY IN NORTH CAROLINA


The UFC makes its way to Raleigh, North Carolina on Saturday for 12 bouts of MMA action. I’ve take a look at the card this week and selected my favorite underdog plays for DFS contests. Here are my top four.

JUSTINE KISH (DK $7,500) – Justine is probably the longest shot of this list for me, but she will most likely have the best support from the crowd. The Cramerton, North Carolina fighter will get a chance to show what she’s made of in her home state on Saturday. Kish is a high volume striker capable of mixing in takedowns. She has a top ten average among all fighters on this card at 62.1 FPPF. She isn’t likely to put up huge scores but she has demonstrated a respectable floor. In her most recent fight, she put up 48.0 FP while scoring 96 significant strikes in a narrow split decision loss. At only $7,500 in salary, she makes an enticing argument for play in DFS contests this week.

Caveman’s advice: Kish should get some play in multi-entry contests (in the range of 10-20%) but stands out at as a low priced option for cash lineups. She hasn’t demonstrated big score potential, but she has a good floor and will face an opponent who is on a three fight losing streak. She will have the crowd behind her and should be throwing a high volume number of strikes. I like her chances at upset and she can score points even in losing efforts.

(At the time of this writing, Justine Kish is +146 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 50.68 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

JUNIOR DOS SANTOS (DK $7,200) – Junior is 4-2 over his last six fights with his only losses over that span coming to Francis Ngannou and Stipe Miocic. Those are the highest quality losses possible in this division and demonstrate Dos Santos’ willingness to fight against the best fighters in the UFC. In fact, he is 1-1 against the current heavyweight champ, Stipe Miocic, having defeated Stipe in May of 2017. He fights another good heavyweight in Curtis Blaydes on Saturday. Blaydes is 5-1 over his last six fights with his sole loss coming at the hands of Francis Ngannou.

Caveman’s advice: At such a low salary, Dos Santos is just too good of a fighter to pass on here. He knows how to fight against quality foes like Blaydes and has a wealth of experience in 5 round bouts. Blaydes has yet to reach the championship rounds before. Blaydes will definitely earn a good number of multi-entry lineups, but Dos Santos deserves a lot of lineups at this price. Give him 30-40% exposure in these contests and don’t be shy about using Dos Santos in cash lineups as well. Junior’s chances at an early round upset are very high for a fighter priced this low.

(At the time of this writing, Junior Dos Santos is +225 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 47.68 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

DARKO STOSIC (DK $7,700) – Darko is only 1-2 in the UFC but has demonstrated KO ability with a first round finish in his octagon debut back in July of 2018. His opponent, Jamahal Hill will be making his UFC debut and as of yet is unproven in front of a UFC crowd. Stosic comes in as a very small underdog and as a professional has finished his opponent in 9 of his 13 victories to date. He is priced well below $8K on Saturday.

Caveman’s advice: At this price, a fighter with 8 KO/TKO’s on record matched against a fighter making his UFC debut makes a great play for DFS contests. I like him primarily in multi-entry contests and suggest investing 25-40% of your lineups in Stosic this week.

(At the time of this writing, Darko Stosic is +102 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 54.07 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

HANNAH CIFERS (DK $7,600) – Outside of a second round KO at the hands of Maycee Barber, Hannah has shown herself to have the ability to out-strike opponents over the course of three rounds. With just two wins inside the distance out of nine fights in the octagon, her opponent Angela Hill doesn’t have the finishing power of a Maycee Barber. In my opinion, Cifers is the better fighter despite being the underdog. This fight is currently -490 to go the distance and Cifers is likely to have three full rounds to accumulate strikes and fantasy points.

Caveman’s advice – Cifers isn’t likely to put up huge numbers here, but she is an underdog that has a significant chance of winning outright. I make her a top cash play and will give her 20-30% exposure in multi-entry contests. I like Hannah to win by decision in this one.

(At the time of this writing, Hannah Cifers is +150 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 51.79 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!

About Rob

Since getting out of the casino business, Rob has been playing DFS regularly with a focus on MMA and NASCAR. He now lives in Denver, CO.

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