The Primer – NBA DFS Expert Analysis – January 24, 2020

Featuring in-depth analysis to help you crack the winning code for the NBA DFS slate on January 24, 2020.

In this article, we are going to go position by position breaking down the top plays and values for you. We will be using FanDuel’s pricing and positions due to the multiple position eligibility for most players on DraftKings.

 

Point Guard

Top Play

Trae Young

Trae Young after posting 77 DK price saw his price decrease to 9600 for this match-up in Oklahoma City. After the Teague trade there was a thought that the Hawks might limit Trae’s minutes a bit but that hasn’t happened with him playing 39 min last time out against Toronto. Trae has a 1.44 FPPM and a 34.3% USG rate which is basically Harden-lite. Also worth noting that Trae Young played his college ball at Oklahoma and this is his one trip to Oklahoma City this year so after missing last game there is some risk he’s rushing back to play in this game.

Others to consider: Kemba Walker, Derrick Rose

Top Value

Ricky Rubio

Not sure why a PG playing 32+ min every game whose averaged 1.07 FPPM is priced below 6k but here we are with Ricky Rubio. The match-up against the Spurs isn’t the best but given Rubio’s productivity and minutes I’m not sure how he’s not the top option when compared to the other guys in the tier like Shabazz Napier and Kris Dunn.

Other Options: Elfrid Payton, Eric Bledsoe

Shooting Guard

Top Play 

DeMar DeRozan

The best kept secret in the NBA the last 6 weeks is how DeMar DeRozan has transformed his game. Once known as only a pure scorer, DeRozan has had 9 rebounds or 9 assists (and in some cases both) in 3 of the last 4 games. This trend of being multi-faceted player has actually been going on a month now and has led him to being consistently one of the better SG’s slate in and slate out. He is coming off a rough game against the Pelicans but Aldridge couldn’t be stopped so I’m not going to hop off DeMar after one pedestrian game.

Others to consider: James Harden, Devin Booker

Top Value

Kevin Huerter

Huerter has been the 2nd most consistent Hawk on the season (ok, fine that doesn’t mean a whole lot), and has been playing mid to upper 30’s in minutes most games since the minutes restriction got lifted. On the year he has a very solid .85 FPPM and draws the 6th best match-up for SG’s in the Thunder (which makes since as neither Shai or Schroder can really defender). This is a very sneaky under the radar potential ceiling spot for Huerter.

Others to consider: Bogdan Bogdanovic, Jeremy Lamb, Damion Lee

Small Forward

Top Play 

Will Barton

With Jamal Murray and Gary Harris off the floor this season, Barton has seen a huge spike in his usage (23.7% from 19.6%) and in FPPM (1.11 from 0.87). He’s had an off couple games which has led to his price dropping industry wide. Don’t focus on the last couple games and just focus on that he’s the 2nd best player on the court on a team facing the Pelicans who play at one of the fastest paces in the league and concede the 2nd most points to opposing SF’s. (5th best for opposing PG’s if you believe Barton is playing more of that role in the offense) I know Will Barton hasn’t had the ceiling game yet but the numbers are the numbers and I’m gonna keep firing away.

Others To Consider: Gordon Hayward (also a Top Play), Pascal Siakam

Power Forward

Top Play 

Bam Adebayo

Bam is coming off a dreadful game against the Washington Wizards (who have quietly been really good against centers since Ian Mahinmi started playing majority of minutes), he gets a nice rebound spot against the undersized Clippers. Bam should be able to get what he wants against Zubac and Harrell (why the Clippers are 5th worst in the NBA vs Centers). Also given the perception of the Wizards, I fully expect Bam to come in super low owned today as that bad game will scare people away.

Others To Consider: Jaren Jackson Jr., Robert Covington, Derrick Favors

GPP Play

Harry Giles

He’s not a top value or a top play but I wanted to mention Harry Giles is listed as a PF on FD and while he didn’t play many minutes in the first game with Bagley out it doesn’t mean he won’t in the future. Dedmon had his ceiling game which led him to get extra run. We’ve already seen Luke Walton bench Dedmon on multiple occasions so Giles has more minute upside than you might think at first glance.

Center

Top Play 

Karl-Anthony Towns

Center is hard to write up when I don’t have Hassan Whiteside to talk about for the 100th straight slate. With Whiteside getting a well deserved off day, I’ll go to Towns who has had a lot of time off lately. Towns has historically wrecked Capela and the Rockets putting up at least 45 fantasy points in the last 5 meetings. Look for Wolves to go to Towns early and often to get Capela away from the basket to free up the rest of the offense.

Others to Consider: Brook Lopez, Montrezl Harrell

 

About CJ Kaltenbach

CJ has been around a long time having started playing DFS in 2014. He focuses on MLB/NBA/NFL but has become quite passionate about the XFL. CJ is originally from Boston (explains his die-hard Boston sports fandom) but currently lives in St. Louis. CJ can be reached on Twitter @TheSeigeDFS

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