The Cruncher List and Core Four for the Conference Finals: Game-By-Game Analysis

The Cruncher List and Core Four for the Conference Finals

This week, we will do a game by game breakdown, highlighting some of the best options when it comes to building line-ups for the Conference Championship!  Our Core 4 piece will be focused on the Main Slate for DraftKings, which encompasses all four games this weekend!  With that said, let’s dive in and break down the first round of NFL Playoff action!

Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs (-7), Projected Total: 51.5 points

Tennessee – Projected total: 22.25 points

The Titans are large road dogs this week as they look to complete the trifecta of upsets and punch their ticket to the Super Bowl.  The Titans only have a couple options worth considering IMO from a fantasy standpoint, and you have to make a call on what you expect as far as game script before deciding.  If you think the Titans will get up early and lean heavily on the ground game – then RB Derrick Henry becomes a must start as the best RB on the slate by a pretty hefty margin.  The Chiefs front seven can be vulnerable against the run – so there is some intrigue here, with the biggest risk to Henry being if the Chiefs and their electric offence get out to an early lead, which would force the Titans to move away from the ground game in order to keep pace – something that has a good probability of happening IMO.

If they are playing from behind, WR A.J. Brown should see a big uptick in targets than what he has been seeing of late, as should probably be true for WR Corey Davis and WR Tajae Sharpe – each of whom are worth keeping in your player pool for MME GPP formats this weekend.

The Cruncher List

  • None

Good Plays

  • RB Derrick Henry
  • WR A.J. Brown

Kansas City Chiefs – Projected total: 29.25 points

The Chiefs have the highest projected total on the board this week by a rather wide margin, and even though the Titans defence has been playing solid football of late – this is a case where I think you want as many Chiefs offensive players as you can fit into your line-up this week.  QB Patrick Mahomes, RB Damien Williams, WR Tyreek Hill and TE Travis Kelce are all elite options in my opinion, while the Chiefs DST is worth keeping in your builds as well.  Don’t expect a repeat of last week’s outburst – but I do think that the Chiefs will be in the ballpark of their projected total in this one – which means you’ll want some exposure here.

The Cruncher List

  • QB Patrick Mahomes
  • RB Damien Williams
  • WR Tyreek Hill
  • TE Travis Kelce

Good Plays

  • WR Sammy Watkins
  • Chiefs DST

Green Bay @ San Francisco (-7), Projected total: 46 points

Green Bay – Projected Total: 19.5 points

Unless you think that QB Aaron Rodgers is going to outpace the likes of Jimmy Garoppolo and Patrick Mahomes on a points per dollar basis – there are essentially two main Packers to strongly consider this week with 1-2 others to keep in your player pool.  WR Davante Adams is the top WR on the board, even in a tough match-up.  He has been crushing it of late, and Rodgers has been looking his way plenty with Adams seeing 53 targets in his past 4 games.  In fact, dating back to Week 4 – and granted he missed a few games due to injury – but Adams has seen double digit targets in all but one game over that stretch.  He’s a great option this week if you like some of the value at RB.

RB Aaron Jones is a great pivot off of some of the other RB’s this week.  He should be in line for close to 20 touches in this one – and he’s an excellent option that will probably slip under the radar more than he should in terms of ownership levels this week.

RB Jamaal Williams, TE Jimmy Graham and WR Geronimo Allison are all worth keeping in your player pool for large-field GPP’s this week.

The Cruncher List

  • WR Davante Adams

Good Plays

  • RB Aaron Jones
  • TE Jimmy Graham

San Francisco 49ers – Projected Total: 26.5 points

With RB Raheem Mostert feeling under the weather then suffering a calf cramp a week ago, opportunity presented itself for RB Tevin Coleman who made the most of it, ripping off a line of 22-105-2.  I expect Mostert to slide back in and approach 15 touches this week, but I think that Coleman will see significant work after last week’s showing, likely seeing them split touches in this one with RB Matt Breida sprinkled in.  I think all three are worth keeping in your builds this week as they all have the potential to pop, but if I had to pick one for cash, my favourite would be Mostert.

QB Jimmy Garoppolo is an elite option at QB if you don’t want to spend up for Mahomes, who can restrict the flexibility on the builds.  WR Deebo Samuel is an elite option at WR, Emmanuel Sanders also fits the bill for an affordable WR with upside, while I would keep WR Kendrick Bourne in your player pool.

TE George Kittle has been priced down to a really tempting price point, though I do slightly prefer spending up for Kelce at this point in time.  Of course on DK, you can roster both – something I think is a viable option this week.

The Cruncher List

  • RB Raheem Mostert
  • WR Deebo Samuel
  • TE George Kittle

Good Plays

  • QB Jimmy Garoppolo
  • RB Tevin Coleman
  • WR Emmanuel Sanders

Core Four: Providing 4 Strong options when building line-ups for this weekend’s Main Slate on DraftKings….

QB Patrick Mahomes, $7,700

Mahomes remains a high priced option this week, and given the fact that the Chiefs are projected for the largest point total on the board by a rather wide margin, I have no problem paying up for him this week.  He was outstanding last week and stayed the course after his WR’s had a case of the drops early on, allowing the Chiefs to roar back against the Texans and advance.  The match-up this week is a tough one – but at this point in the season, they usually are.  I like his chances of having another big Sunday, and have no problem paying up for him this week.

RB Raheem Mostert, $4,300

Mostert suffered from an illness last week, and then saw his workload limited with a calf cramp a week ago.  While RB Tevin Coleman filled in admirably – I think that Mostert has shown enough over the course of the season to still get plenty of run this week, and I expect him to approach 15 touches.  If he gets there, he should have no problem paying off at this price point, and I think he’s an excellent value play at RB.

WR Deebo Samuel, $5,200

Samuel was disappointing a week ago, though he really didn’t have to do much due to the limited challenge that the Vikings put up.  This week, I think the Packers will put up more of a fight, and I have no problem doubling down on Samuel – who remains priced affordably for the 49ers.  He’s an excellent mid-priced option at WR, and I think he has a very strong showing this week.

TE Travis Kelce, $7,100

I picked right in who I wrote up a week ago, which was pretty lucky as I really didn’t have much conviction between Kelce/Kittle so I opted for the higher scoring game.  This week, I do like Kelce more than Kittle as I worry about Kittle’s ankle injury that he has been playing through (though I wouldn’t blame anyone that wanted to save $1,300 at the position by firing up Kittle).  I still like both of them, and will have plenty of exposure to both – but if you asked me to pick, I’m sticking with Kelce, even with the higher price point!

Best of luck to you and your line-ups this weekend!  We hope you enjoy the final of NFL playoff action before the Super Bowl!

 

 

About Brad

Brad hates the term fantasy sports expert, so instead he is someone who specializes in NFL, NHL and MLB DFS notes and analysis. He had a 68.2% win rate in 2015 NFL cash games to go along with a 83.5% win rate for the 2014 season. For NHL he had a 58.7% win rate in the 2015-16 season for cash games and a 66.2% win rate for the 2014-15 season. You can follow him on Twitter @bradsgotmoxy.

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