Sharing core plays and a cheat sheet for January 16, 2020, NBA DFS slate on DraftKings.
Welcome to our NBA Core Plays & Cheat Sheet column for DraftKings.
We’ll be sharing this article with you for all main slates (2 games+) over the course of the 2019-2020 NBA season. Let’s get at it!
This slate is ripe with value and attractive plays, making it really hard to choose a ‘core 4’ for the day. So, here are some situations I’m going to highlight as where I see great opportunity for above-average plays.
Denver’s core with Jamal Murray all but assured to miss some time
Murray came down hard yesterday and had to be helped off the floor after just 15 minutes of action. It didn’t look good on replays, and I expect him to be sidelined for a good chunk of time. But for DFS purposes, all we care about is tonight.
The names that you’ll want to know from a value standpoint are Torrey Craig, Monte Morris and Michael Porter Jr. Craig is probably the most boring of the group, but actually sees the highest usage rate bump in the split when Murray is off the floor. Monte Morris had moments in 2018-19, but has largely taken a step back as a reserve. Porter is the most exciting name, especially at $3,600 with 37.5 FP in last night’s game (28 minutes; 25.8% usage off the bench). He’s my favourite of this group.
However, don’t sleep on Nikola Jokic and Will Barton in particular. They actually see the highest increase in usage when Murray (as well as Paul Millsap and Gary Harris, both banged up) are off the floor at +5.5% and +4.5% respectively. Barton translates that into the highest FP net benefit, with +2.6 points vs his season long average and nearly 40 FP per 36 minutes of action. After Porter, Barton is the next guy I love on this team tonight.
The Pelicans with Jrue Holiday sidelined
Hart has started 5 straight games, playing 33+ minutes in each of his last 4 and hitting 21.25+ in each, and as high as 32.5 in the process (against NYK). With his price down to $4,800 from $5,300 just last game, and the minutes total climbing to the high 30s pretty consistently, he’s a nice value guy who can rebound and steal his way to a great ROI game with a high floor (think true floor as 4.5x and realistic ceiling of 6.5+).
Lonzo Ball on the other hand, has really been beasting lately with 42.25+ FP in 3 straight games, and unlike FanDuel, his price has jumped to +$7,900 from $6,900 last game. He’ll be popular here but less so than FanDuel where he’s basically a free square. However, with the production we’re getting from him right now, he’s still worth a $7,900 price tag as a 45 point game is still worth a 5.5 ROI.
I’m not sleeping on Ingram here, especially with the SF/PF eligibility (-$500 vs FanDuel). He has 51+ DKP in 3 of his last 4 games, and given the news is favourable to him playing at pretty good health here, we should see high minute, high usage output from him as the Pels milk him for every piece of his ability before Zion Williamson debuts next week.
Loving Markelle Fultz one more time while the value is still there
After a really strong 5 game stretch where Fultz eclipsed 31 fantasy points in 4 of 5 – not to mention a triple-double last night against the Lakers – we should see him be pretty popular here. However, I wouldn’t necessarily shy away from exposure as the price ($5,500) is tremendous for a PG/SG position that is pretty heavily cluttered with guys $6,500+ that should be within the consideration set. With 30+ minutes being a regular thing for him, as well as great contributions in points, rebounds, assists and steals of late – he’s a premium option despite a tough positional battle on tap with Patrick Beverley (which could limit some scoring, but REB/AST will still be solid).
Please note that we can only list a player at one position on the cheat sheets and unless otherwise noted I like the player at both of their eligible positions.
$ Tier PG SG SF PF C High Devin Booker (9k / 45.65) Brandon Ingram (8.4k / 46.80) Nikola Jokic (9.6k / 46.86) D'Angelo Russell (7.5k / 39.32) Kawhi Leonard (10.1k / 52.34) Lonzo Ball (7.9k / 39.33) Medium Lou Williams (6.9k / 35.32) Khris Middleton (7.3k / 40.11) Deandre Ayton (7.7k / 41.50) Nikola Vucevic (8.5k / 43.90) Donovan Mitchell (7.4k / 40.93) Julius Randle (8k / 38.26) Ricky Rubio (7.2k / 40.23) Will Barton (6.8k / 35.05) Low Patrick Beverley (5.6k / 27.72) Mikal Bridges (4.5k / 29.58) Michael Porter Jr. (3.6k / 29.13) Daniel Theis (4k / 26.27) Markelle Fultz (5.5k / 30.71) Josh Hart (4.8k / 29.33) Dario Saric (3.8k / 22.22) Ivica Zubac (4.8k / 22.61) PJ Dozier (3k / 16.04) Wesley Iwundu (3.2k / 17.62) Cameron Johnson (3.1k / 19.59)