The Primer – DFS NHL Edition – Tuesday, January 14

The Primer – DFS NHL Edition for Tuesday, January 14

Games on the Main Slate: 11

Games with Projected 6.5 goal totals: NJ/TOR, CHI/OTT, VAN/WPG, NSH/EDM, 

Favourites that are -165 or greater: TOR, TB, NYI, PIT

Where to Expect Chalk

  • There are eleven games on the slate for Tuesday night, which should help keep down ownership levels across the board with so many options when it comes to stacking tonight.  With that said, I do expect three teams to be quite popular from an ownership standpoint:
    • Toronto, playing at home as -260 favourites against Jersey in a game with a projected total of 6.5 should result in high ownership levels, particularly the Matthews/Marner Combo – and to a lesser extent, Tavares/Nylander.  All will be fairly chalk due to the fact that they play on the elite top PP unit along with Tyson Barrie on the back-end and Frederik Andersen in net.
    • Tampa’s top line will be popular as -280 favourites at home against the Kings in a game with a projected total of 6.  Tampa has been playing outstanding hockey of late, and I expect the top line and top PP unit to be popular stacking options.  They also have some nice punts that are in play, such as Tyler Johnson on the wing and Sergachev on the back-end.
    • Finally, the top six and top PP unit for the Islanders should be fairly popular tonight as well.  They are affordable, which will help combine them with a moderate-high spend for a second stack.

Some Edges to Attack Tonight…

  • I like an over-weight position on the Matthews line for the Leafs tonight.  They have been playing incredible hockey, and I expect Matthews/Marner to log north of 21-22 minutes in this one as the Leafs have lost three straight.  Tyson Barrie is a great play on the point and D Travis Dermott should see an uptick in ice time with the injury to Morgan Rielly.
  • I like the idea of a game stack between the Blackhawks and Sens tonight.  The game has a neutral line and a projected total of 6.5 goals, and when you look at the price points for some members of each team – there is a lot of appeal here to a game stack, or loading up with significant exposure to each for MME GPP formats.
  • Don’t sleep on building in McDavid and Draisaitl to your MME builds.  Nashville has struggled to defend all season long, and I could see this pair being lower owned than they should be tonight with the three large favourites on the board.
  • Vegas’ second line has been playing great hockey and will be moderately owned at best tonight as small road favourites in Buffalo.  I like an over-weight position here on Pacioretty and company.

Some Places to Consider Fading…

  • I love loading up on BOS1 most nights, but tonight won’t be one of those nights.  They are too taxing from a salary standpoint, and I have no problem fading them tonight with so many other options that aren’t nearly as expensive in great spots.
  • It’s not often I opt for a fade on MacKinnon and company, but against a stout defensive team in Dallas coming to town, I’m going to roll the dice and leave COL1 and the top PP unit out of my builds, opting for exposure elsewhere.

Best of luck for those playing today and here’s to hoping it’s a good night for you in your NHL DFS action! 

If you have any questions at all, you can find me on Twitter @bradsgotmoxy!

About Brad

Brad hates the term fantasy sports expert, so instead he is someone who specializes in NFL, NHL and MLB DFS notes and analysis. He had a 68.2% win rate in 2015 NFL cash games to go along with a 83.5% win rate for the 2014 season. For NHL he had a 58.7% win rate in the 2015-16 season for cash games and a 66.2% win rate for the 2014-15 season. You can follow him on Twitter @bradsgotmoxy.

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