The Primer – NBA DFS Expert Analysis – January 10, 2020

Featuring in-depth analysis to help you crack the winning code for the NBA DFS slate on January 10, 2020.

In this article, we are going to go position by position breaking down the top plays and values for you. We will be using FanDuel’s pricing and positions due to the multiple position eligibility for most players on DraftKings.

Point Guard

Top Play

Luka Doncic

With no Porzingis, Doncic has been playing upper 30’s in minutes averaging 1.96 FPPM which is just insane. The match-up is quite good in what should be a really competitive game against the Lakers. Don’t overthink this, just lock in Doncic til Porzingis gets back.

Others to consider: Trae Young

Top Value

Goran Dragic

With Justice Winslow ruled out, Dragic comes in at a very sneaky good price. Dragic has been a 0.97 FPPM player on the season and does well when there is extra ball handling available which is the case today. Brooklyn also concedes the most points to opposing point guards which gives Dragic the ceiling to mash and the pick and roll with him and Bam should be unstoppable.

Other Options: Markelle Fultz, Malcolm Brodgon/Aaron Holiday

Shooting Guard

Top Play 

Devonte Graham

I’m not sure why Graham is in the 6k’s today but I’m going to take advantage of this egregious price. Graham has been a huge part of the Hornets offense sporting a 25.3% USG while sporting a 1.01 FPPM on the season. While the match-up against Utah looks tough on paper, they actually have conceded the 6th most points to shooting guards. There are definitely a bunch of other great options in this price range but Graham eeks out the others for me as the top play.

Others to consider: Jordan McRae, DeMar DeRozan

Top Value

Terrence Ross

With Carter-Williams still out, and DJ Augustin questionable for this game, there is a ton of minute upside for Ross. With the backup PG likely to be Fournier in a situation where DJ misses, that opens up more minutes for Ross to be the gunner that we all know and love. Ross has been a 0.82 FPPM player on the year but he does sport a 23% USG so if Orlando needs to get his minutes into the 30’s that presents us a ton of upside at a punt price.

Others to consider: Jordan Clarkson, Dillon Brooks

Small Forward

Top Play 

Lebron James

Hard to imagine he misses a national TV game against Luka Doncic especially with Anthony Davis likely to miss the game. Lebron James has been averaging a 37.6% USG and a 1.5 FPPM this season when Anthony Davis hasn’t been on the floor. I can go into more advanced stats but you guys already know Lebron is awesome, so don’t overthink it.

Others To Consider: Alec Burks, Troy Brown

Power Forward

Top Play 

Daniel Gafford

After the Wendell Carter Jr. injury, Gafford makes his primer debut. The Bulls in the first game started Thad Young but have decided to make the change today and start Gafford. Gafford this year has been hot and cold but he’s a 0.98 FPPM player so if we can get 24-28 minutes out of him he’ll be in prime position to pay off this price and against the Pacers it’s likely they’ll need his size.

Others To Consider: Kawhi Leonard, John Collins

Center

Bobby Portis

Sometimes you just have to wonder what the sites are thinking and that’s the case with Bobby Portis. We have a player averaging 0.97 FPPM in a prime position to play 28-32 minutes again. Additionally, his usage in these last few games has been well above his 21.1% season average and starting will only make that trend likely to continue. The match-up against the Pelicans is great but it doesn’t even matter, Portis could be playing the Monstars from Space Jam and you’d have to lock him at this price.

Others to Consider: Mitchell Robinson, Myles Turner

 

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