Diving deep into player ownership expectations for 1/10/20 NBA DFS contests.
In this article, we are going to look at the projected most popular player at each position using Awesemo’s ownership projections and determine if the popular play is what we like to call Good Chalk or players that you should be playing or Bad Chalk or players that you should be underweight on. We will be using FanDuel for this article due to the multiple position eligibility for most players on DraftKings
Keep in mind that this article is done mid-day for each large slate and ownership projections can change sometimes drastically as the day goes on.
Verdict: Good Chalk – We don’t need to over-analyze Doncic much anymore as we know he is already a superstar in this league. Doncic is currently projected as the highest owned PG and the highest projected one as well. If we have to knit-pick, Doncic is actually coming off of a poor performance in which he played 37 minutes and had a usage rate of 42%. You can see the tongue-in-cheek here, as Doncic has the highest floor and ceiling of any player on this slate.
Verdict Bad Chalk – Wright saw the start last game out against Denver as they produced a smaller starting lineup, but Wright was almost in single-digit usage and though he cracked 5x value, he had to work to get there. There is some appeal here at the low price if he starts again, but whether or not he starts again remains to be seen. FanDuel priced this slate pretty softly so I think we can get through it without holding our breath that Wright takes more than five shots on the night.
Verdict: Undecided – I think there is an argument here for both LeBron James and Brandon Ingram (if he plays), though Giannis in his own right is still projected to be the highest-scoring SF on the slate. Giannis has been nursing a back injury and despite that label, he has played through it the last two games seeing 32 and 34 minutes respectively, which of note, is above his season average. Giannis doesn’t need the minutes to put up 50+ fantasy lines, but in blowouts, the load has been limited down to 28 minutes. The Bucks are nine-point favorites tonight against the Kings
Verdict: Good Chalk – Kawhi gets a smash spot tonight against the Warriors and with no Paul George tonight for the Clippers expect to see a usage bump. However, the smash spot against the Warriors has to worry us, as the Warriors will be without D’Angelo Russell tonight. The Clippers are currently 13 point favorites and if this game gets out of hand early we could see them use it as a pseudo rest day. I admit a fault of mine is sometimes worrying about blowouts too much, but in so many cases, especially with Leonard, we are going to see rest days when applicable when games get out of hand. Leonard hasn’t played in six days, so he is certainly fresh. If the Warriors keep this game close and keep Leonard on the floor, this might be my favorite point per dollar play tonight.
Verdict: Good Chalk – The Knicks will be without Julius Randle and Marcus Morris (doubtful) again tonight which will lead to another start from Bobby Portis. His price on FanDuel only increased to $4,400 and he played 29 minutes last game with a usage of 26%. Portis will need to stay out of foul trouble to see his full return, but he gets a great pace up matchup against the Pelicans tonight.