DraftKings MMA Mixed Martial Arts DFS Analysis Picks Plays Advice Strategy

UFC 245 – December 14, 2019

SAVING SALARY DOLLARS BY SPENDING DOWN


The UFC heads to Vegas on Saturday and I’ve identified some situations where spending down in salary can prove advantageous for DFS contests this week.

Caveman’s advice: Instead of playing MARLON MORAES (DK $9,000) spend down and use KAMARU USMAN (DK $8,900) instead.

Over his last six fights, Usman has scored less than 100 FP only once and scored a combined 307.5 FP in his two most recent fights. His average over those six fights is 117.6 FPPF. In the same span of fights, Marlon Moraes is 4-2 with an average of 72.7 FPPF. Taking Usman over Moraes is a virtual push in win probability here, and the 45 FPPF difference in scoring makes Usman the stronger play of the two. In his three five round fights to date, Usman is averaging 126.8 FPPF.

(At the time of this writing, Marlon Moraes is -189 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 65.19 on Fantasy Cruncher. Kamaru Usman is -186 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 83.92 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

Caveman’s advice: Instead of playing KETLEN VIEIRA (DK $8,800) spend down and use VIVIANE ARAUJO (DK $8,600) instead.

Araujo is not only the (slightly) bigger favorite of the two fighters but she carries a much higher average at 91.5 FPPF compared to Vieira’s 76.8 FPPF. Since her UFC debut, Ketlen Vieira is an impressive 4-0 but she has yet to reach 90 points in scoring. In those fights, she narrowly escaped defeats in half of them with two split decision victories out of her four wins. Araujo is 2-0 in the UFC and shows better scoring potential with a high score of 109.5 FP. Scoring potential at a lower cost brings Araujo much better value than Vieira on Saturday.

(At the time of this writing, Ketlen Vieira is -188 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 65.02 on Fantasy Cruncher. Viviane Araujo is -189 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 66.84 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

Caveman’s advice: Instead of playing GERMAINE DE RANDAMIE (DK $7,000) spend down and use URIJAH FABER (DK $6,800) instead.

On July 13 of this year, Urijah Faber returned from a hiatus of over two and a half years. DraftKings made him the second lowest salaried fighter of the event. He responded with a KO of Ricky Simon (who demonstrated a solid chin last week against Rob Font) in just 46 seconds. In the same event, Germaine de Randamie also scored a first round win by a controversial stoppage over Aspen Ladd. That controversial win has inflated her stats over a short UFC career. She is a solid 3-0 in the octagon, but outside of her first round win over Ladd where she score 102 FP she has never scored more than 70 FP. Buyer beware, Faber has a nearly impossible task facing Petr Yan and is the biggest dog on Saturday. Still, at this salary, he is playable as a fighter with a proven potential to finish fights, even as an underdog. I like his chances a lot more than de Randamie’s who faces an Amanda Nunes that appears unstoppable and has beaten de Randamie before.

(At the time of this writing, Germaine de Randamie is +260 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 50.23 on Fantasy Cruncher. Urijah Faber is +383 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 34.21 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

Bonus advice: Now that you’ve saved those salary dollars, where should you spend them?

Consider spending up and taking MAX HOLLOWAY (DK $8,700) instead of KAI KARA-FRANCE (DK $8,500).

Despite an impressive start to his UFC in December of last year, where he score 103.0 FP, his next two fights haven’t were both sub 100 scores including a 69.0 FP score versus Raulian Paiva where he won by split decision. Meanwhile, over his last six fights, Holloway has scored over 115 FP four times, eclipsing 100 signficant strikes in all but one of those fights. In fact, his lowest score over this period was 90.5 FP in his loss to Dustin Poirier where he scored a whopping 181 significant strikes, demonstrating his ability to score even in defeat. Max is always a threat to put up the biggest score of the night and I’ll spend up for him on Saturday.

(At the time of this writing, Max Holloway is -181 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 81.52 on Fantasy Cruncher. Kai Kara-France is -161 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 67.58 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!

 

About Rob

Since getting out of the casino business, Rob has been playing DFS regularly with a focus on MMA and NASCAR. He now lives in Denver, CO.

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