The Primer – NBA DFS Expert Analysis – December 14, 2019

Featuring in-depth analysis to help you crack the winning code for the NBA DFS slate on December 14, 2019

In this article, we are going to go position by position breaking down the top plays and values for you. We will be using FanDuel’s pricing and positions due to the multiple position eligibility for most players on DraftKings.

Point Guard

Top Play

Ja Morant

Coming off a day of rest on Friday, Morant is rested and ready to go against the Wizards in what is a rare pace-up spot for the Grizzlies. Morant has sported a 29.4% USG rate on the year and a 1.17 FPPM and he gets the pace-up spot against a defense that’s conceded the 7th most points to opposing point guards on the year.

Others to consider: Luka Doncic, Jamal Murray

Top Value

George Hill

No Eric Bledsoe means George Hill will start and play around 27 minutes which at his .94 FPPM makes him an elite play. The match-up against Cleveland is the 2nd best in the league for point guards. Don’t overthink this one.

Others to Consider: Kendrick Nunn, Derrick Rose

Shooting Guard

Top Play 

Khris Middleton

If Giannis was to miss this is a no-brainer option, but I actually like Middleton with or without Giannis tonight as Bledsoe will miss which should give Middleton more minutes. Middleton is sporting a very good 25.5% USG on the season and averaging 1.14 FPPM and then with no Bledsoe this is a ceiling type spot for Middleton even if Giannis plays (also even if he plays, and they get up early could be a conserve him 20-24 min type appearance which would also help Middleton).

Others to Consider:  James Harden, Jimmy Butler

Top Value

Dillon Brooks

If you’ve followed me this year you know I’m one of the biggest Dillon Brooks truthers out there, I really love his game and most importantly his DFS price never seems to move for a guy with a big ceiling. It’s rare for a player who vast majority of the time plays 27-32 minutes, sports a 23-27% USG rate game by game and takes 12+ shots on average can be found in the high 4K’s – low 5K’s but that’s what we get every day with Brooks. This match-up against the Wizards doesn’t get much better for Brooks with it being pace-up and the Wizards give up the 4th most points in the league to opposing SG’s.

Others to Consider: Ben McLemore, Donte DiVincenzo

Small Forward

Top Play 

Paul George

With no Kawhi Leonard, Paul George has been averaging over 1.5 FPPM, and depending on what others of his supporting cast end up missing this game his usage could be near Harden like today. Fanduel did a good job attempting to raise his price but he’s still a top option everywhere.

Others To Consider: Taurean Prince, Pascal Siakam

Top Value

Troy Brown

Troy Brown appears to finally be out of Scott Brook’s dog house as he’s been playing big minutes and showing the upside that made me like him all season long. In this pace-up spot against the Grizzlies, Brown should be able to put his activity on full display here.

Others to Consider:  Derrick Jones Jr., Danuel House

 

Power Forward

Top Play 

Kevin Love

Jaren Jackson Jr. illustrated last night what a PF that can stretch the floor can do. Now I had no idea before lock that JJJ could take that many 3’s in a game but we know Kevin Love is a high usage guy who can stretch the floor. If Giannis misses, the matchup vs Ersan will be even better. Then again, the Bucks give up the most points to opposing PF’s as is.

Others To Consider: Jarrett Allen, Jaren Jackson Jr.

Top Value

Ersan Ilyasova

With Giannis questionable and Ersan getting a coaches decision DNP on Friday, it looks like Giannis will sit with Ersan playing all the minutes he can handle. Despite what we saw in the first game, he’s not going to make every shot but in a pace-up spot like this he’ll be certainly able to pay off his min-price salary.

Others to Consider:  Davis Bertans, Jerami Grant

Center

Top Play 

Brook Lopez

With Bledsoe out and Giannis questionable, Brook Lopez will be needed to have one of his higher usage days. The match-up against the Cavs is fantastic as he’ll be able to get more rebounds than normal and draws a match-up against Thompson who would rather not leave the paint. Without the top end centers, I’m more likely to take the best value and pay-up elsewhere.

Others to Consider: Wendell Carter Jr., Marc Gasol

 

 

About CJ Kaltenbach

CJ has been around a long time having started playing DFS in 2014. He focuses on MLB/NBA/NFL but has become quite passionate about the XFL. CJ is originally from Boston (explains his die-hard Boston sports fandom) but currently lives in St. Louis. CJ can be reached on Twitter @TheSeigeDFS

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