The Cruncher List for Week 15: Game-By-Game Analysis

The Cruncher List | Week 15 FanDuel & DraftKings NFL DFS Lineup Advice, Tips & Picks.

Here to help you build the best possible FanDuel & DraftKings NFL Week 15 Line-up

Seattle (-6) @ Carolina, Projected Total: 48.5 points

Seattle – Projected total: 27.25 points

The Seahawks are big road favourites in a game that they should be able to control.  With RB Rashad Penny out for the season, fire up Chris Carson for a heavy workload in this one – he should be heavily involved as a bell-cow RB this week and should clear 20 touches with ease.  He’s an elite option at RB this week that will be very popular.

As for the passing game, the Seahawks have really struggled to move the ball through the air in terms of being fantasy relevant, with Wilson clearing the 18 DKP mark once since Week 6.  The match-up is an intriguing one, but I think that Seattle will likely lean on the ground game, playing with the lead in this one – which is enough to keep the likes of Wilson, Lockett, and DK Metcalf off of The Cruncher List this week.

The Seahawks DST is worth mixing into your GPP builds this week.

The Cruncher List

  • RB Chris Carson

Good Plays

  • Seahawks DST

Carolina – Projected total: 21.25 points

RB Christian McCaffrey and WR D.J. Moore continue to see plenty of action for the Panthers, and both of them should continue to see plenty of volume this week in a game that the Panthers will likely be trailing in if the game script goes as projected.  McCaffrey is an elite option in this match-up, his price is down a little bit – and while he is still the most expensive option of the week, there are enough value options out there to make him a cash game staple (and worth having significant exposure to for GPP’s).  Last week was the first week in seven games that Moore didn’t see at least 9 targets, making Week 14 a bit of a disappointment for him – but I like the spot he is in this week for a bounce-back effort.  Even though last week was a disappointment, he still cleared 12 DKP – and is a high floor option playing out of the slot, earning the trust of QB Kyle Allen for plenty of volume.

TE Ian Thomas hauled in 5 of 10 targets for 57 yards and a score a week ago, and based on his price point a week ago, he paid off in spades for the many that rostered him.  TE Greg Olsen practiced on Friday, recovering from his concussion – so keep an eye on his status.  If he suits up, Thomas would be worth removing from your player pool – but if he sits, Thomas is an elite option at his price point.

The Cruncher List

  • RB Christian McCaffrey
  • TE Ian Thomas (if G.Olsen is out)

Good Plays

  • WR D.J. Moore

New England (-10) @ Cincinnati, Projected total: 41.5 points

New England – Projected Total: 25.75 points

Large favourites on the road, facing a defence that has actually done a pretty good job of defending all positions from a fantasy standpoint of late.  The Patriots offence looks out of sorts, and while there is always risk that RB Sony Michel could go off in a game with this type of projected game script, the split in the backfield that we have seen most weeks is enough to put a damper on the thought of rostering any of them with any significant weighting for GPP’s.

The only option that I have interest in this week is WR Julian Edelman, though I do prefer some other options on the board in his price range.

The Pats DST is an elite option in this one going up against a sub-par OL.  Look for them to get pressure on Dalton early and often in this one, racking up a fair number of sacks and forcing a few turnovers.

The Cruncher List

  • Pats DST

Good Plays

  • WR Julian Edelman (DK)

Cincinnati – Projected Total: 15.75 points

RB Joe Mixon has been playing good football, and I think he’ll see a fair number of touches in this one – maybe even approaching 20 in both phases of the game.  If the Pats have an area that they can be beat, it is on the ground.  He’s not on The Cruncher List, but I do think it will serve you well from a risk/return standpoint to mix in the odd Mixon line-up for MME this week.  Outside of him, they are a pretty easy pass for me.

The Cruncher List

  • None

Good Plays

  • RB Joe Mixon

Tampa Bay (-4) @ Detroit, Projected Total: 46

Tampa Bay, Projected Total: 25 points

The Bucs passing tree took a big hit last week with WR Mike Evans likely out for the season.  The match-up here is outstanding, as the Lions have given up the 8th most fantasy points to opposing QB’s.  This puts QB Jameis Winston in a plus match-up in this one.  Bruce Arians announced that he will be starting in this one despite his thumb injury.  I think he’ll have one of the higher absolute fantasy totals at the position this week, but he is expensive, which is a drawback to have to pay up for a QB, enough to keep him off of The Cruncher List.

WR Chris Godwin is an elite play that should see a target bump with the injury to Evans.  Outside of him, WR Brashad Perriman and WR Justin Watson are worth sprinkling in some exposure in stacks and/or game stacks if you go that route.

The running game has a great match-up in this one, facing a Lions defence that has allowed the third most fantasy points to opposing RB’s.  I prefer Ronald Jones to Peyton Barber – but I wouldn’t go nuts with exposure here, despite the match-up.

The Bucs DST is worth mixing in going up against QB David Blough, who struggled mightily last week.

The Cruncher List

  • WR Chris Godwin

Good Plays

  • QB Jameis Winston
  • RB Ronald Jones
  • Bucs DST

Detroit, Projected Total: 21 points

With WR Marvin Jones out for the season, look for WR Kenny Golladay to see an uptick in targets this week, and going up against a poor Bucs secondary – he is an elite option this week, even with undrafted rookie QB David Blough under center.

Outside of him, I don’t have any interest in any Lions this week.

The Cruncher List

  • WR Kenny Golladay

Good Plays

  • None

Chicago @ Green Bay (-4), Projected Total: 41

Chicago, Projected Total: 18.5 points

Road dogs in a game projected to be low scoring that I think will play out that way – I don’t have any interest in any Bears this week.  We may see a respectable day or two here, but I doubt it will be a part of large-field GPP wins.  Then again, I thought the same thing about Saints/Niners a week ago….how did that one turn out?!

The Cruncher List

  • None

Good Plays

  • None

Green Bay, Projected Total: 22.5 points

The Bears do a good enough job of defending the pass that I don’t think I want a piece of anything here.  I may sprinkle in a tiny bit of exposure to WR Davante Adams, but I will still likely be under-weight there.  I don’t want anything to do with Aaron Rodgers, who has failed to hit the 13 DKP mark in 4 of his past 5 games.  In his defence, they are winning games so he hasn’t had to – but that’s a tough stat to see.

RB Aaron Jones is worth low double digit exposure due to his ceiling.  If the Bears can be beaten defensively, it is on the ground and through the short passing game to the RB.  Jones is a sneaky good play here, and I love the spot he is in – but there is definitely risk here.

The Cruncher List

  • RB Aaron Jones

Good Plays

  • Packers DST

Denver @ Kansas City (-10), Projected Total: 45.5

Denver Projected Total: 17.75 points

The Broncos had a great Week 14 win over Houston, and they’ll look to shock the NFL yet again this week, again – as massive road dogs, this time against divisional foe, Kansas City.  The Chiefs have been doing a good job defensively against the pass – and if they do have a weakness defensively, it is on the ground, defending the run.  I think we’ll see plenty of touches for both RB Philip Lindsay and RB Royce Freeman – but I have no problem opting for a fade here of the Broncos, knowing it does carry a little bit of risk.

You could sprinkle in some exposure to TE Noah Fant.  The Chiefs have allowed the 5th most PPG in full PPR against the position.

The Cruncher List

  • None

Good Plays

  • TE Noah Fant

Kansas City Chiefs, Projected Total: 27.75 points

I don’t love the match-up for any of the Chiefs weapons this week – but if you factor in the total, you’ll want to mix in some exposure here.  With that said, if you agree more with how I started this section, you could make out like a bandit if you fade here and are right in doing so.  QB Patrick Mahomes, WR Tyreek Hill and TE Travis Kelce are worth getting some exposure to – but outside of that trio, I don’t have much interest here.

The Cruncher List

  • None

Good Plays

  • QB Patrick Mahomes
  • WR Tyreek Hill
  • TE Travis Kelce

Miami @ New York Giants (-3), Total: 46.5

Miami, Projected total: 21.75 points

The Dolphins are banged up right now, and they aren’t very talented to begin with.  I love the spot this week for RB Patrick Laird on DK, I expect him to be heavily involved and approach 20 touches in this one, chipping in with a handful of catches contributing to that figure.  At his price point on DK, I think he’s an elite option.  At WR, if you are looking for a contrarian punt, you could look to WR Isaiah Ford, who should see the bulk of the snaps vacated by Parker, who will likely sit with a concussion.

WR Allen Hurns is a more traditional play at WR and should play most of the snaps for Miami as well.  If you are looking for a punt with upside, Ford and/or Hurns could be viable here.

The Cruncher List

  • RB Patrick Laird (DK)

Good Plays

  • WR Isaiah Ford (punt)
  • WR Allen Hurns (punt)

New York Giants, Projected Total: 24.75 points

RB Saquon Barkley didn’t have a big Week 14, but he looked much more like the back we saw early this year, and in his rookie season.  I think he has a big day against a vulnerable front seven from Miami, and he is on The Cruncher List in this one.  As is WR Darius Slayton who went off for a 5-154-2 line on MNF a week ago.  Miami doesn’t have anyone capable of covering him one-on-one in this one.  QB Eli Manning is a suitable punt with upside at QB this week based on the match-up alone – but I do prefer some other options on the board.  Outside of this trio, I think the rest of the Giants options are a pretty easy fade.

The Cruncher List

  • RB Saquon Barkley
  • WR Darius Slayton

Good Plays

  • QB Eli Manning

Houston @ Tennessee (-3); Projected Total: 51.5

Houston, Projected Total: 24.25 points

This game has the highest projected total on the board, which means that we will likely see our fair share of options in this one be pretty popular from an ownership standpoint.  For Houston, the interest lies in QB D.Watson and WR D.Hopkins.  Hopkins is an elite option that is pretty much match-up proof – and well worth the high spend in a game that has the potential to be a shoot-out.

The Titans have allowed the 14th fewest points per game to the QB position, but that has been trending worse with the increased points on the board they have been putting up with QB Ryan Tannehill under center.  I think Watson has a nice day in this one, and he’s worth mixing into your builds for some stacks with Hopkins and/or game stacks.

The Cruncher List

  • WR DeAndre Hopkins

Good Plays

  • QB DeShaun Watson

Tennessee Titans, Projected Total: 27.25 points

Three elite plays here for a team with one of the highest projected totals on the board:

  • QB Ryan Tannehill – remains an affordable option at the QB position and comes into this one clearing 31 DKP in two of the past three games, and 28 DKP in 3 of the past 5.  The match-up is a great one…the Texans have allowed the 6th most fantasy points to opposing QB’s this season.
  • WR A.J. Brown – his snap count is way up, and while his efficiency stats may take a bit of a hit as a result, he is a very talented rookie that I think will have a big Week 15.
  • RB Derrick Henry – he’s expensive, but is on some kind of run right now.  So what if he is TD dependant?  Do you really think he doesn’t score and approach/clear 100 yards in this one?  I think he has a big day.

The Cruncher List

  • QB Ryan Tannehill
  • RB Derrick Henry
  • WR A.J. Brown

Good Plays

  • None

Philadelphia (-5) @ Washington, Projected Total: 39

Philadelphia, Projected Total: 22 points

The Eagles WR group is decimated by injuries.  They are down to JJ Arcega-Whiteside and Greg Ward as the two healthy WR options, meaning that TE Zach Ertz should eat again…and TE Dallas Goedert is worth getting some exposure to as well.  I don’t have any interest in QB Carson Wentz in this one with all the WR injuries.

Look for RB Miles Sanders to be heavily involved in the offence as well, with a sprinkling in of RB Boston Scott.  Sanders has seen 41 touches over the past two weeks and with Jordan Howard banged up, he looks to have taken the bell-cow role for the Eagles.

The Eagles DST is an elite option against rookie QB/sack machine, Dwayne Haskins.

The Cruncher List

  • RB Miles Sanders
  • TE Zach Ertz
  • Eagles DST

Good Plays

  • TE Dallas Goedert

Washington, Projected Total: 17 points

As they have been for most of the season, Washington is an easy fade this week for me.

The Cruncher List

  • None

Good Plays

  • None

Cleveland (-3) @ Arizona, Projected Total: 49

Cleveland – Projected Total: 26 points

The match-up for every passing position is elite here, and the match-up for RB’s is above average….better than that if you think the Browns will run it a ton, which would give Nick Chubb ~20 touches and Kareem Hunt ~10.  I think that QB Baker Mayfield and WR Jarvis Landry are elite plays in this one, with Landry doing damage out of the slot, something that has given the Cards DB’s nightmares all season long.  WR Odell Beckham Jr. is worth getting some exposure to as well, though I do prefer Landry personally.  TE David Njoku is worth considering, though I worry he will be on a snap count again, and I do prefer other TE’s on the board.

As for the ground game, I do think that Cleveland will be playing with a lead in this one, and I think that Chubb is an elite play on FD this week, and I think Hunt is worth sprinkling in for low-mid single digit exposure in MME GPP builds on DK.

The Cruncher List

  • QB Baker Mayfield
  • RB Nick Chubb (FD)
  • WR Jarvis Landry

Good Plays

  • RB Nick Chubb (DK)
  • RB Kareem Hunt (DK)
  • WR Odell Beckham Jr.

Arizona, Projected Total: 23 points

The backfield looks like it will move towards a timeshare, making this a pretty easy pass for me.  As for the passing attack, QB Kyler Murray and company come into this one off of two disappointing outings.  I think they bounce back in this one – but I do prefer other options on the board at QB this week, leaving Murray as a secondary option.  WR Christian Kirk fits the same criteria.  I’d get a bit of exposure to both, but I won’t be making big bets on either with an over-weight position in terms of exposure.

The Cruncher List

  • None

Good Plays

  • QB Kyler Murray
  • WR Christian Kirk

Jacksonville @ Oakland, Projected Total: 47 points

Jacksonville, Projected Total: 20.5 points

The Jags are big road dogs in this one, but should remain an offence that features a few options – making them DFS relevant:

  • RB Leonard Fournette continues to get almost all of the snaps in the Jags backfield.  He won’t be too popular from an ownership standpoint this week with many flocking to Carson – but he makes for a great pivot off of him at lower ownership.  Look for him to get 15+ carries and another 5-7+ targetst through the air.  He’s a high floor/high ceiling option at RB.
  • WR Dede Wesbrook should continue to get targeted plenty working out of the slot, especially with the fact that Chark has been ruled out for the week.
  • WR Chris Conley should see an uptick in snaps and targets with Chark’s injury – and at his price point, I think he’s an elite option this week.

The Cruncher List

  • RB Leonard Fournette
  • WR Chris Conley

Good Plays

  • WR Dede Westbrook

Oakland, Projected Total: 26.5 points

The Jaguars defence has fallen off of a cliff, struggling in all phases of the game of late – putting Carr and company in a great spot this week.  With Carr and his WR’s (Tyrell Williams in particular) – I do prefer other options on the slate – but they are worth consideration this week.  With WR Hunter Renfrow back in the fold, I expect TE Darren Waller to likely see a couple less targets.  There has been a strong inverse correlation to Renfrow playing and Waller’s targets.  He’s worth getting a little bit of exposure to – but I wouldn’t go nuts here.

As for the ground game, RB DeAndre Washington is an elite option at his price point if RB Josh Jacobs is in fact ruled out.  If Jacobs does play he’s a secondary option to me, dealing with a fractured shoulder, he could be out on any given snap given that he will be playing tackle football with a fractured…shoulder.  I actually hope he does suit up because if he does, Washington’s ownership levels will tank, much like we saw with DJ and Chase Edmonds the week that DJ ‘started’.

The Cruncher List

  • RB DeAndre Washington

Good Plays

  • QB Derek Carr
  • WR Tyrell Williams
  • TE Darren Waller

Minnesota (-1) @ Los Angeles Chargers, Total: 45

Minnesota Projected points: 23 points

I don’t have much interest in rostering any Vikings this week, playing on the road against a tough Chargers defence.  I think this game will be low-scoring, and have no problem fading it.

The Cruncher List

  • None

Good Plays

  • None

Los Angeles, Projected: 22 points

Cruncher List

  • None

Good Plays

  • None

Los Angeles Rams (-1) @ Dallas, Projected Total: 48.5

Los Angeles Rams – Projected Total: 24.75

Dallas is above average at defending all positions other than TE, where they have given up the 10th most fantasy points per game in PPR scoring.  I love what I have seen in terms of volume for WR Robert Woods, who seems to see most of the work along with WR Josh Reynolds in the 2 TE set the Rams have been running plenty of late.  Woods has seen 48 targets in the past four games, and has been one of the best WR’s in the game over that stretch.

Woods is an elite option this week, as is TE Tyler Higbee, who has excelled since getting a chance to shine with Everett’s injury.  Outside of these two, I have no problem fading the rest of the Rams this week.

The Cruncher List

  • WR Robert Woods
  • TE Tyler Higbee

Good Plays

  • None

Dallas – Projected Total: 23.75

The Cowboys will put up some points in this one – and I’d recommend getting some exposure to the big three for Dallas – but I wouldn’t go nuts with exposure here, and for cash games, there are better options on the board.  I’ll likely only game stack for my minimal Dallas exposure this week.

The Cruncher List

  • None

Good Plays

  • Game Stack
  • QB Dak Prescott
  • RB Ezekiel Elliott
  • WR Amari Cooper

Atlanta @ San Francisco (-11), Projected Total: 48

Atlanta – Projected Total: 18.5

The Falcons are a pretty easy fade for me this week.  I could see some intrigue to game stacking here if you think that the Falcons will be able to keep pace with the Niners – but I am not in that camp this week.  Matt Ryan has looked dismal of late.

The Cruncher List

  • None

Good Plays

  • None

San Francisco – Projected Total: 29.5 Points

QB Jimmy Garropolo and WR Emmanuel Sanders are elite options in this one, going up against a Falcons defence that has allowed the third most fantasy points to opposing QB’s on the season.  I expect them to pick up where they left off a week ago, having another big game on Sunday.  WR Deebo Samuel is a secondary play for me, but I think you’ll want to mix in some exposure to him for MME GPP’s.

I love this spot for Raheem Mostert.  I’m not sure why many think that this will be a timeshare…sure – he won’t get 100% of the carries for the Niners, nor will he be close to that, but I think he has shown over the past two weeks that he is the clear 1A back, something that I expect to continue this week.  He’s an elite option this week for me as well – and I feel, with minimal risk on top of that.  I expect him to be in the 13-17 touch range, and I expect him to do damage with that number.

TE George Kittle is an elite option at the position this week, as is the Niners DST against an OL that hasn’t been able to protect, and a QB that has turned the football over a ton.

The Cruncher List

  • QB Jimmy Garropolo
  • RB Raheem Mostert
  • WR Emmanuel Sanders
  • TE George Kittle
  • 49ers DST

Good Plays

  • WR Deebo Samuel

Best of luck in your Week 15 DFS action!

About Brad

Brad hates the term fantasy sports expert, so instead he is someone who specializes in NFL, NHL and MLB DFS notes and analysis. He had a 68.2% win rate in 2015 NFL cash games to go along with a 83.5% win rate for the 2014 season. For NHL he had a 58.7% win rate in the 2015-16 season for cash games and a 66.2% win rate for the 2014-15 season. You can follow him on Twitter @bradsgotmoxy.

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