Diving deep into player ownership expectations for week 15 NFL DFS contests for the 2019-2020 season.
In this article, we are going to look at the projected most popular player at each position using Awesemo’s ownership projections and determine if the popular play is what we like to call Good Chalk or players that you should be playing or Bad Chalk or players that you should be underweight on.
FanDuel: Russell Wilson (11.2%) / DraftKings: Dak Prescott (10.5%)
Verdict: Undecided – Much unlike any week I have seen in recent memory the projected ownership between quarterbacks on both sites is razor-thin right now. This is being typed on Friday so as always, anything can change in the next few days, but what I am seeing right now is a week with no quarterback as chalk and a wide variety of options. Though Wilson is the highest projected owned QB on FanDuel, he is edging out Prescott there by just 0.3%. So for the sake of it, let us call Prescott the “chalk” of this slate currently. I prefer the salary of $6,300 on Draftkings to his salary of $7,800 on Fanduel as it feels like we are getting just a bit more value on Draftkings. Overall for the matchup though, there isn’t a ton to be overly excited about here. Sure this game has a total of 48.5 currently, but that is still fourth-best on the slate. I think there are better and cheaper options (also slightly more expensive and better options).
FanDuel: Chris Carson (33.3%) / DraftKings: Saquon Barkley (31.8%)
Verdict: Good Chalk / Undecided – I am here for Chris Carson week as he will absorb some extra work left behind by Rashad Penny, while also taking on one of the league’s bottom three defenses in Carolina. I feel we have done this song and dance before, but if Carson can just hold onto the ball then he should have no issue in this matchup and also should see some receiving work left behind from Penny. Barkley puts us all in a weird spot this week and honestly, I am not sure how to approach it yet. Barkley has not looked like himself over the last five weeks as he has only cracked 15 fantasy points one time (15.5) and hasn’t topped 100 yards rushing since week 2. Barkley’s price actually has risen $400 compared to last week and if he didn’t have a matchup against the Dolphins this week it would be easy to leave him behind. Miami has allowed the most yards rushing in the league and nearly 400 yards of total offense weekly. If there was ever a spot for Barkley to ‘get right’ this would be it. However, I am not sure I want to be chasing the field hoping he does.
FanDuel: DeAndre Hopkins (17.5%) / DraftKings: DeAndre Hopkins (20.5%)
Verdict: Undecided – For me, this comes down to if Will Fuller plays or not. We obviously want Hopkins to horde as much of the target share as we can and sometimes it is as simple as saying if Fuller comes in and gets targets, this could move Hopkins to being bad chalk. Hopkins comes in as the most expensive WR on each site this week and does get a positive matchup against a below-average Titans secondary. At this price point, I currently prefer to build around Chris Godwin, who comes in second on projected ownership.
FanDuel: Darren Waller (20%) / DraftKings: George Kittle (16.9%)
Verdict: Good Chalk – Though each site lists a different guy as chalk, both Waller and Kittle are in the top three in ownership on both DK and FD. I think Waller lands as chalk on FanDuel due to just a slight edge in overall value compared to Draftkings, though the price difference there is just $700. Historically I think people view tight end as a “pay down” spot, though this year has proven tight end can be just as strong as another skill position. Kittle undoubtedly has the best matchup here as he faces a Falcons defense allowing over 365 yards per game and 26 points per game. The only worry here is the Falcons/Niners game has the largest spread on the slate and it could be used as a light week for Kittle who was recently banged up a bit. However, I will admit that that narrative is lazy in professional sports and often not the case. For Waller, he faces a Jaguars team that is essentially tanking right now. Waller has at least five targets in six of his last seven games and despite being allergic to the end zone (only three touchdowns on the year) he still is fourth overall for total points from a tight end. Waller and Kittle are both my favorite tight end plays this week.
FanDuel: Chiefs (12%)
Verdict: Undecided – Denver is currently projected for the second-lowest total on this slate, but Drew Lock showed a lot of guts last weekend and had an eye-opening performance. It is way too early and way too hard to judge off of the small sample of what Drew Lock actual is or can be but this Chiefs defense has been wildly inconsistent this year. Kansas City’s defense has four weeks of 11 fantasy points or higher and also seven weeks of five fantasy points or lower. 12% isn’t that high of ownership which keeps them in play, but you are going to get one side of the coin here, flip away.
DraftKings: Eagles (8.5%)
Verdict: Good Chalk- This is matchup driven but until the Redskins show me they can put up points there is no real reason to not attack them. The Eagles defense isn’t anything special in their own right, but the Redskins severely lack playmakers right now and the Eagles are in a playoff push.