Diving deep into player ownership expectations for 12/13/19 NBA DFS contests.
In this article, we are going to look at the projected most popular player at each position using Awesemo’s ownership projections and determine if the popular play is what we like to call Good Chalk or players that you should be playing or Bad Chalk or players that you should be underweight on. We will be using FanDuel for this article due to the multiple position eligibility for most players on DraftKings
Keep in mind that this article is done mid-day for each large slate and ownership projections can change sometimes drastically as the day goes on.
Verdict: Good Chalk – With Al Horford slated to miss another game, the ownership on Sixers players is seeing an expected rise. Simmons is coming off of back-to-back horrible games in which his usage, field goal attempts, and points overall were down. In fact, Simmons is also getting a price bump of $500 despite hitting under 3.1x value in back to back games. Realistically, I don’t think this is too much to look into and tonight Simmons gets one of the best matchups on the board against the Pelicans. Unless there is an underlying injury with Simmons that is limiting him right now that I don’t know about, then I will happily attack Simmons here. Despite him being “chalk” he is only looking at 25% ownership right now and I am fine rostering him at that percentage.
Verdict: Undecided – Bogdan slides into chalk territory once again as FanDuel still has him at just $4,500. The usage, minutes, and attempts are incredibly consistent which could be looked at as a negative and positive. Bogdan doesn’t need to do much to reach value here and as long as his minutes stay in the 28+ range he is in play. Remember he is coming off of a slight knee injury that should be behind him at this point. I lean towards this being a good chalk play to free up salary.
Verdict: Bad Chalk – I think this is a product of the early write-up, but as it stands now Isaac is projected for over 25% ownership tonight. His price is very manageable on FanDuel at just $7,000 which creates the appeal here, but if Nikola Vucevic suits up tonight as rumored, I think some Isaac usage goes by the wayside. I think this projected ownership changes and we can do better tonight.
Verdict: Undecided – With Eric Paschall and Draymond Green out tonight, every big for the Warriors is going to see a boost. Chriss went for 10x his value last game out when given 24 minutes. The key for Chriss is, and always will be, his need to stay out of foul trouble. I do love the spot Chriss is in tonight, but if he gets into early trouble this easily could turn into the Omari Spellman game. Don’t sleep on either.
Verdict: Undecided – There are a lot of ways to spend tonight and though KAT is one of those options, I am not sold that we should be doing it if he also carries the highest center ownership. This LAC/MIN game is projected as the highest-scoring game of the night and with the Clippers missing Beverly and Lou Williams tonight it gives Minnesota a great shot to stay in the game and stay competitive. I wish this play was a little cheaper as KAT has fallen below 5x value in three of his last five games and with the $11,000 price tag we can not afford to miss here.