The Primer – NBA DFS Expert Analysis – December 11, 2019

Featuring in-depth analysis to help you crack the winning code for the NBA DFS slate on December 11, 2019

In this article, we are going to go position by position breaking down the top plays and values for you. We will be using FanDuel’s pricing and positions due to the multiple position eligibility for most players on DraftKings.

Point Guard

Top Play

Spencer Dinwiddie

After a monster few weeks, Dinwiddie has fallen back to earth having not reached 40 FP his last three games but this match-up against the Hornets is a great spot for a rebound. Charlotte has given up the 3rd most points to PG’s this year and Dinwiddie has sported a 36% USG rate with no Kyrie Irving on the floor this year. There are always a lot of good PG options but Dinwiddie the top option.

Others to consider: Ja Morant, Ricky Rubio

Top Value

Lonzo Ball

The New Orleans Pelicans are coming off a tough last second loss to the Pistons in which Lonzo didn’t start. The Pelicans lineup change appeared to be a reaction to facing the Pistons who have Griffin/Drummond as the last time they faced a big team in the Lakers they had used the same bigger lineup. The Bucks is another team where the Pelicans could choose to play big but you could easily put Brandon Ingram on Brook Lopez if they wanted to. Regardless, I expect Lonzo to play about 30 minutes which in this fast game should work to his advantage.

Others to Consider: Patrick Beverley, Tomas Satoransky

Shooting Guard

Top Play 

Devonte Graham

James Harden is always an elite play but Devonte Graham is the better play today. Graham has been amazing all season sporting a 25.5% USG and a 1.04 FPPM while making the leap into an elite fantasy option. The Nets are a pace-up spot for the Hornets and concede the most points to opposing shooting guards on the season. Doesn’t get much better than this.

Others to Consider:  James Harden, Donovan Mitchell

Top Value

J.J. Redick

The Bucks give up the most 3 point attempts of any team in the league and JJ Redick is one of the best 3 point shooters in the league. While the Bucks isn’t an easy match-up for anyone, there is big ceiling here for JJ if he gets hot from behind the arc.

Others to Consider: Kevin Huerter, Ben McLemore

Small Forward

Top Play 

Lebron James

With Giannis out, Lebron becomes the class of the SF pool. Lebron can go off at any time, and he has a perfectly lovely match-up against the Magic who concede the 9th most points in the league to opposing SF’s. The best case for Lebron is the value options at the SF position are some of the worst we have seen all season long (more on that later) so locking in the guy with a 32.5% USG and 1.51 FPPM seems like a solid plan.

Others To Consider: Paul George, Kelly Oubre Jr.

Top Value

Daniel House

The value SF options are downright miserable, with House and Ingles are the only playable options at this point. House has been cold lately but he can get hot from three at any time and Cleveland isn’t good at defending anyone.

Others to Consider:  Joe Ingles

 

Power Forward

Top Play 

Kawhi Leonard

Kawhi Leonard is one of the best players in the NBA and I can give you lots of good reasons why he’s a great play (Toronto concedes 4th most points to PF’s, 1.51 FPPM, 34.8% USG), but were you really going to fade Kawhi Leonard in his return to Toronto where he’s going to get his ring and a hero’s welcome? Didn’t think so.

Others To Consider: Anthony Davis, Jarrett Allen

Top Value

D.J. Wilson

With Giannis ruled out today, I expect Ersan to start for him but DJ Wilson to be the true winner. Wilson has been a solid 18% USG player when he’s gotten minutes and has averaged a bit below 1 FPPM when playing over 10 minutes which I expect to happen today. Coach Bud has said he wants to get DJ more involved so Giannis sitting is the perfect time to make that happen. I expect 24-30 minutes for DJ Wilson which makes him the best of the (relatively) weak PF options.

Others to Consider:  Royce O’Neale


Center

Top Play 

Clint Capela

With Harden being ineffective last time out, it led to Capela not getting the free dunks and put-backs that he normally gets. I expect that to change with an improved Harden shooting night and against the undersized Cavs front court with Tristan Thompson and Kevin Love. The best part for Capela is Kevin Love should keep PJ Tucker out by the perimeter giving Capela a greater rebound rate than normal. Haven’t called a 20-20 game in awhile but think this is Capela’s best chance to get one this season.

Others to Consider: Karl-Anthony Towns, Montrezl Harrell

 

 

About CJ Kaltenbach

CJ has been around a long time having started playing DFS in 2014. He focuses on MLB/NBA/NFL but has become quite passionate about the XFL. CJ is originally from Boston (explains his die-hard Boston sports fandom) but currently lives in St. Louis. CJ can be reached on Twitter @TheSeigeDFS

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