Diving deep into player ownership expectations for 12/11/19 NBA DFS contests.
In this article, we are going to look at the projected most popular player at each position using Awesemo’s ownership projections and determine if the popular play is what we like to call Good Chalk or players that you should be playing or Bad Chalk or players that you should be underweight on. We will be using FanDuel for this article due to the multiple position eligibility for most players on DraftKings
Keep in mind that this article is done mid-day for each large slate and ownership projections can change sometimes drastically as the day goes on.
Verdict: Good Chalk – With Giannis ruled out tonight and the highest projected scoring game on the slate tonight, it will probably come as no surprise that a lot of Milwaukee Bucks players will be chalk tonight as they have near 40% usage to eat up amongst themselves. Bledsoe has been producing at a pretty constant rate, though the sample without Giannis isn’t known yet this year as this is the first game he has missed. With just a $7,000 price tag, this play seems easy and will be 40% owned though I have no personal issues with eating this chalk, and most of the rest of the Bucks.
Verdict: Undecided – It may surprise you that Khris Middleton doesn’t hold this spot but he is actually just 2% projected ownership behind Bogdanovic. Looking at game logs and health, there isn’t actually a ton to love about Bogdan tonight but his price is what is inflating his ownership. Bogdan dropped $1,200 in price down to just $4,500. The usage and value is severely down, but this is one of the higher ceilings plays at this price-point. I am torn on this play right now and I am leaving it at undecided. Khris Middleton is good chalk.
Verdict: Bad Chalk – I don’t think paying up for Siakam is the play tonight due to some other high priced options that I think are in better positions. Small forward is actually decently stacked tonight so I expect the ownership to spread out pretty evenly across the field. If Siakam ends up being the highest owned then I am just fine being under the field at a $8,700 price tag.
Verdict: Undecided – The biggest direct beneficiary to the Giannis news is Ilyasova and Donte Divincenzo. DD is a more hybrid SG/SF while Ilyasova will fill the size gap left by Giannis. If the Bucks decide to go super small, I don’t think Ilyasova gets the massive bump some are assuming he gets. However, he will still see a small minute bump likely by default. Even at his standard minutes, Ilyasova has been a 5.2x value or higher player in his last three games at just 16 minutes tops. Ilyasova is appropriately projected for 22 minutes tonight and I lean good chalk more than bad, though I would like to see a starting lineup first.
Verdict: Undecided – The center position currently projects no player above 15% ownership which in my eyes is not chalk. Rudy Gobert, Brook Lopez, Bismack Biyombo, and Clint Capela are all projected between 10-15% ownership. With such an even distribution all can be considered equally.