Diving deep into player ownership expectations for 12/6/19 NBA DFS contests.
In this article, we are going to look at the projected most popular player at each position using Awesemo’s ownership projections and determine if the popular play is what we like to call Good Chalk or players that you should be playing or Bad Chalk or players that you should be underweight on. We will be using FanDuel for this article due to the multiple position eligibility for most players on DraftKings
Keep in mind that this article is done mid-day for each large slate and ownership projections can change sometimes drastically as the day goes on.
Verdict: Bad Chalk – Dunn has remained a very popular play after entering the starting lineup as he has been projected to be highly owned, if not the highest owned, in his last three games. It appears the price boost to $5,000 isn’t moving people off of that mindset as he is currently projected at 27% ownership. Despite the high ownership and starters’ minutes, it hasn’t translated into much of anything as he has scored three straight games between 20-and-21 fantasy points. With Sato back for the Bulls as well, this play just isn’t the one for us tonight.
Verdict: Good Chalk – Butler is on a bit of a mini-heater, going over 6x value in each of his last two games while playing 37 and 41 minutes respectively. Tonight is a great mixture of momentum and matchup as the Heat take on the Wizards in what should be the night’s highest-scoring affair. I prefer Butler to Beal tonight at a raw output and due to the $700 savings between the two. The only worry here is a blowout, as the Wizards are banged up and on a back-to-back.
Verdict: Good Chalk – Is Giannis on the slate? Yes. Okay, so play Giannis. I said it before, the key to Giannis is deciding his minutes. If you think Giannis is going to play over 30 minutes, you play Giannis. If you think he is going to play less than 30 minutes, you can consider fading Giannis. There are always going to be exceptions to this rule depending on the slate. Tonight the Bucks face a Clippers team they faced back in early November which saw Giannis put up 79 fantasy points. It should be noted Kawhi and George were out in that game. This will be the Bucks toughest matchup in a while which should lead to a full array of work for Giannis.
Verdict: Undecided – I love the Heat tonight against the Wizards but as mentioned, I fear a bit of a blowout here as the Wizards are not in a good spot right now. Abedayo has had a few down games recently but this is a get right spot against a back-court of Mo Wagner and Hachimura. Bam is currently projecting out at 41% however, which for me is a range that really makes you reconsider. I am not sure my approach on Bam yet, but I will be under the field of 41%.
Verdict: Undecided – Wagner drew his first start of the season but struggled against Joel Embiid, which led to Wagner’s lowest usage of the season. With Thomas Bryant out for the next three weeks, Wagner will see all the opportunities he can handle on an injury-plagued Wizards team. The price for Wagner won’t stay this low, so at a projected 21% ownership I think Wagner is one of the better tournament plays tonight despite another tough matchup.