The Primer – NBA DFS Expert Analysis – December 4, 2019

Featuring in-depth analysis to help you crack the winning code for the NBA DFS slate on December 4, 2019

In this article, we are going to go position by position breaking down the top plays and values for you. We will be using FanDuel’s pricing and positions due to the multiple position eligibility for most players on DraftKings.

Point Guard

Top Play

Luka Doncic

I know people get mad when I keep typing up the same players as the top plays on the slate but what am I supposed to do when Luka Doncic who has a 36.1% USG rate and is averaging a James Harden-esque 1.67 FPPM. Last night he had 33-18-5 in only 28 minutes against the Pelicans. This match-up against the Timberwolves is just as good.

Others to consider: Trae Young, Eric Bledsoe

Top Value

Emmanuel Mudiay

Mudiay is going to be one of the higher owned players on the slate and it’s all going to come down to what the minutes are for him. Mudiay wasn’t a direct replacement for Mike Conley last time so we have no idea if he will start tonight. As a starter, I’d project him for 28-32 minutes which would make him a Dennis Smith type lock value play but if he comes off the bench that range could be from 20-28 minutes making it no sure thing. Without definitive news, I most likely will play him and hope for the best.

Others to Consider: De’Anthony Melton, Tomas Satoransky

Shooting Guard

Top Play 

D’Angelo Russell

Russell is back after a thumb injury and Steve Kerr has said no minutes restriction. This is fantastic news for a player who has a 34.5% usage rate on the season and averaging 1.25 FPPM and draws a match-up against the Hornets who give up the 2nd most points in the league to opposing SG’s on the season.

Others to Consider: Donovan Mitchell, Zach Lavine

Top Value

DeAndre Bembry

With Hunter and Crabbe out we get another Bembry value slate. Bembry will only mash if he makes shots and while the pace of this game will be good, Brooklyn is 9th in the NBA against SG’s so it’s the one place their D holds up so it’s no lock but still the best of the available options.

Others to Consider: Dennis Schroder, Danny Green

Small Forward

Top Play 

Lebron James

Another really strong SF slate today is headlined by Lebron James who is well, Lebron James. He is sporting a 32.1% USG rate and a 1.51 FPPM and this is a big game for the Lakers in their quest for home-court so expect Lebron to be pushed if needed. Match-up against Utah isn’t the best but Bojan doesn’t have the strength to cover Lebron so he should be able to do what he wants.

Others To Consider: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jonathan Issac

Top Value

TJ Warren

TJ Warren is as streaky a shooter as they come but this year for the Pacers when he’s been making shots he’s been getting 15+ shots a game, at a SF position that doesn’t have a ton of punt options, Warren presents a boom/bust cheaper option that has a clear road to mashing his value in GPP’s. Match-up against the Thunder is solid as well.

Others to Consider:  Tim Hardaway Jr., Joe Ingles

Power Forward

Top Play 

Anthony Davis

Much like Lebron, Anthony Davis will be needed tonight in this big game vs the Jazz. Anthony Davis is sporting a 30.7% USG rate and a phenomenal 1.53 FPPM. In a game where his minutes could get extended he has a huge ceiling here. Utah outside of Gobert doesn’t have any size so look for Lakers to try and bound AD early and often.

Others to Consider:  Jayson Tatum, Blake Griffin

Top Value

Frank Kaminsky

With Aaron Baynes out again the Suns will be rotating Kaminsky, Diallo and Saric across the PF and C slots in this match-up against the Magic who without Vuc don’t have the ability to attack the perimeter shooters as Bamba is more of a traditional stay at home center. That’s why I like Kaminsky the most of the group as he has a solid 20% usage rate and has been averaging 0.88 FPPM on the year.

Others to Consider: Dario Saric, Cheick Diallo

Center

Top Play 

Karl-Anthony Towns

Dallas simply doesn’t have any defense in the front-court that can stop KAT and his 1.55 FPPM. Dallas has done well vs traditional centers but KAT isn’t your traditional center so I’m throwing DvP out the window here and just focusing on that Towns has been a beast in must-win games this year and he’ll get all the usage he can handle tonight.

Others to Consider: Andre Drummond, Wendell Carter Jr.

 

 

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