Diving deep into player ownership expectations for 12/4/19 NBA DFS contests.
In this article, we are going to look at the projected most popular player at each position using Awesemo’s ownership projections and determine if the popular play is what we like to call Good Chalk or players that you should be playing or Bad Chalk or players that you should be underweight on. We will be using FanDuel for this article due to the multiple position eligibility for most players on DraftKings
Keep in mind that this article is done mid-day for each large slate and ownership projections can change sometimes drastically as the day goes on.
Verdict: Undecided – The projected ownership currently at the point guard position is very spread out but Dunn currently tops the board at 22%. Dunn has seen back-to-back starts in which he has seen 29 and 30 minutes in respectively. Regardless of starting or not, the usage is still sub 20% and he is not attempting many shots as that job has been going to Zach Lavine. I think Dunn is a decent value, but we haven’t seen much to tell us that he has the ceiling to help you win a tournament. On the flip-side, the Bulls do take on a banged-up Memphis squad and Chicago is actually a favorite in this game. Since the ownership is spread out so much, even at 22%, this isn’t necessarily chalk.
Verdict: Undecided – Mitchell’s projected ownership spiked with the news that Mike Conley would miss tonight’s game. Mitchell has not cracked 4.5x value in his last five games and is shooting well under 40% in his last three. I try not to roster players who appear to be in bad form, who also are shaping up to be chalk. It makes for a good recipe to grab leverage, but I also press in these articles that there is much more to a box score than the end result. The positives here are that Mitchell is still attempting near 20 shots per game, his usage is around 30% besides a few outliers, and his price has dropped $500. The matchup against the Lakers isn’t the best tonight either. Most of these factors are telling my head no, but my heart still wants to have exposure as if Mitchell ever had a ceiling game, this could be it. I am more undecided on this play than I ever have been before, but I lean towards bad chalk due to all factors considered.
Verdict: Undecided – Three straight undecideds is probably not what a reader wants to see when reading this article but I feel there is no real way around it right now. Giannis is Giannis. We know what we are getting nightly out of him and that is never what is in question. The question is ‘is paying $12,400 for him the right move in roster construction’. Giannis has seen just 22 and 20 minutes in his last two games due to the Bucks winning each game by nearly 40 points. The Bucks are the NBA’s hottest team right now and a matchup with the 8-13 Pistons feels like another chance at a blowout. This game is on the road and only has an eight-point spread, but playing Giannis tonight comes down simply to whether or not you think he will play 30 minutes or not.
Verdict: Good Chalk – Kaminsky drew the on Monday and played 33 minutes with a usage rate of over 20% which lead to 7.4x value. The price didn’t move much here, only rising by $200 which leaves Kaminsky firmly in play tonight despite not being in the greatest matchup. As long as Baynes is out and the price stays low, Kaminsky is in play for me.
Verdict: Bad Chalk – I labeled Drummond as bad chalk yesterday and I am not going to change my tune despite his 63 fantasy point performance. However, this is due to a massive outlier in a five steal, four-block effort which alone translates to 27 fantasy points on FanDuel. Drummond had five steals combined in his previous five games before putting up five in one. The line was good, Drummond was in a lot of winning lineups last night, but no one playing him could ever project the peripheral output that he gave. Tonight it is a back-to-back against a great Milwaukee team and Drummond has seen a slight price increase. I don’t think tonight is the night.