The Primer – NBA DFS Expert Analysis – December 3, 2019

Featuring in-depth analysis to help you crack the winning code for the NBA DFS slate on December 3, 2019

In this article, we are going to go position by position breaking down the top plays and values for you. We will be using FanDuel’s pricing and positions due to the multiple position eligibility for most players on DraftKings.

Point Guard

Top Play

Luka Doncic

I know people get mad when I keep typing up the same players as the top plays on the slate but what am I supposed to do when Luka Doncic who has a 36.1% USG rate and is averaging a James Harden-esque 1.67 FPPM and is playing the Pelicans in what will be one of the fastest games the Mavericks will play all year? He’s the top play and it’s not that close.

Others to consider: Russell Westbrook, Fred VanVleet

Top Value

Ish Smith

Ish Smith is what he is, a higher usage back-up point guard playing in the mid-20’s in minutes and closing majority of games, but want to explain why Kendrick Nunn isn’t the top value for me. Many are simply going to go back to what happened earlier in the season when Dragic missed time but this situation is different. Jimmy Butler is at full strength and perfectly capable of running the offense as a PG, as can Justice Winslow who is now coming off the bench which means no matter which unit Nunn is on he won’t be the primary ball handler. Can Nunn get there by making shots? Sure he can but that isn’t why he’s going to be chalky today.

Others to Consider: DJ Augustin, Patty Mills

Shooting Guard

Top Play 

Jrue Holiday

Over the past couple weeks the Pelicans have decided this is their time to make a push towards the playoffs, pushing Jrue into the 36-40 minute a night range. It so happened this boost happened during a stretch of good defensive teams (OKC x2, LAL, LAC, UTA) so we haven’t had the consistent monster Jrue games but if he’s going to be playing this many minutes and sporting a 25.1% USG rate in 233+ total games he’s going to beast soon enough.

Others to Consider: James Harden, DeMar DeRozan

Top Value

Josh Hart

Hart came back from injury against the Lakers and came back and played 25 min and followed it up with 31 and 33 minutes in the next two games. It looks like Hart has fully regained his 6th man role he had before he got hurt and his price hasn’t fully adjusted yet. In this fast-pace game vs Dallas he should be able to help in those peripherals that help him hit his ceiling.

Others to Consider: J.J. Redick, Terrence Ross

Small Forward

Top Play 

Lebron James

Another really strong SF slate today is headlined by Lebron James who is well, Lebron James. He is sporting a 32.1% USG rate and a 1.51 FPPM and this is a big game for the Lakers in their quest for homecourt so expect Lebron to be pushed if needed. Match-up against Denver isn’t optimal but it’s Lebron James he’s match-up proof.

Others To Consider: Brandon Ingram, Jonathan Issac

Top Value

Justice Winslow

As mentioned in the PG section, people are going to assume Nunn is going to take over the ballhandling duties vacated by Goran Dragic but I think those duties go to Justice Winslow who is in a fantastic match-up against the Raptors who give up the 5th most points to opposing SF’s. Winslow doesn’t have the highest usage rate but that should go up from his season long average of 19.2% and despite that low usage is already averaging 0.83 FPPM. Given the boost in workload and match-up he’s in a situation where he can blow up and break the slate.

Others to Consider:  OG Anunoby, Rudy Gay

Power Forward

Top Play 

Anthony Davis

Much like Lebron, Anthony Davis will be needed tonight in this big game vs the Nuggets. Paul Millsap has more size than most PF’s in the league but the Nuggets still give up the 11th most points in the league to opposing PF’s, and when he plays center that match-up only improves vs Jokic. Anthony Davis is sporting a 30.7% USG rate and a phenomenal 1.53 FPPM. In a game where his minutes could get extended he has a huge ceiling here.

Others to Consider:  Kristaps Porzingis, Blake Griffin

Top Value

Trey Lyles

Targeting players against the Clippers is normally not good but with LaMarcus Aldridge questionable, Lyles has multiple ways to crush his price tag. If LMA sits, Lyles the likely starter and would go from 15-17 minutes into the high 20’s which would be a fantastic boost, but even if LMA plays Lyles against the Clippers bench provides a stretch scoring threat that has given them trouble in past games. Lots of risk here but the potential reward is worth it.

Others to Consider: Rui Hachimura, Skal Labissiere

Center

Top Play 

Andre Drummond

It feels like Drummond plays Cleveland every week but this is another fantastic rebound spot for him against the undersized front court of Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson. That lack of size is why the Cavs give up the 4th most points in the NBA to opposing centers. Drummond has a massive 24.5% usage rate and 1.41 FPPM on the season and in this match-up can’t imagine how he doesn’t make value.

Others to Consider: Hassan Whiteside, Jakob Poeltl

 

 

About CJ Kaltenbach

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