Diving deep into player ownership expectations for 12/3/19 NBA DFS contests.
In this article, we are going to look at the projected most popular player at each position using Awesemo’s ownership projections and determine if the popular play is what we like to call Good Chalk or players that you should be playing or Bad Chalk or players that you should be underweight on. We will be using FanDuel for this article due to the multiple position eligibility for most players on DraftKings
Keep in mind that this article is done mid-day for each large slate and ownership projections can change sometimes drastically as the day goes on.
Verdict: Undecided – So far this year we have seen a theme of Westbrook being chalk and Westbrook being inconsistent. I honestly feel like on shorter slates that I am covering Westbrook chalk more often than not. The thing is, is the usage is there, the minutes have been there, but with James Harden on the floor the ceiling is just simply capped. In Westbrook’s last 12 games he has only broken 5x value two times. When paying a premium price for a player we ideally would want to be also chasing a ceiling that is attainable and right now as long as Harden is on the floor I do not believe that Westbrook has the ceiling that people are used to him having. Tonight is a great matchup with the Spurs with the highest team total on the board. I understand the appeal, but I stick to my previous statements. I will likely have some Westbrook exposure, but it will be way under the field.
Verdict: Good Chalk – At this price-point, we are going to need a 60+ fantasy point game to reach 5x value, but in a game against the Spurs with the highest total on the board I don’t think there is much concern here. Harden will be the highest scoring shooting guard on the slate tonight.
Verdict: Undecided – The Spurs will once again be without LaMarcus Aldridge which should equal a few more minutes for Rudy Gay. His last two games have been a bit polarizing as one he played 31 minutes with a lower usage and the other 23 minutes but almost double the usage as the game before. We have limited data to work with on games without Aldridge so it is hard to say how it will go one way or the other. In a perfect world, we would get over 25 minutes and usage over 25%, which would be about the average of his last two games. The price is right however for the ownership and matchup, which is why Gay is leading to being chalk. With plenty of time before lock, I can not make a clear decision on Gay yet.
Verdict: Bad Chalk – Simply put, this is Luka Donicic world and we are all just living in it, including Kristapas Porzingis. Now, don’t get me wrong, Porzingis is one of the best compliment players out there right now but the truth is the numbers label him as just that, a compliment. The usage rate is down in the 20-25% range and the minutes are around 30-32. Porzingis has been under 5x value in six of his last seven games and though tonight’s matchup with the Pelicans is a positive one for pace, I just can’t bring myself to pay the $8,100 price tag for his current production.
Verdict: Bad Chalk – Another fan favorite of chalk, Andre Drummond once again makes this write up as he is currently projected for 28% ownership. The rebound numbers have been there for Drummond, but the points have not as he has only scored over 20 points once in his last 12 games. With Blake Griffin healthy and on the floor there is no real reason to pay up for Drummond as he is consistently falling below or at projection. As it stands right now, there is always going to be a value play or someone with a slightly higher ceiling that is worth risking in tournaments.