Diving deep into player ownership expectations for 12/2/19 NBA DFS contests.
In this article, we are going to look at the projected most popular player at each position using Awesemo’s ownership projections and determine if the popular play is what we like to call Good Chalk or players that you should be playing or Bad Chalk or players that you should be underweight on. We will be using FanDuel for this article due to the multiple position eligibility for most players on DraftKings
Keep in mind that this article is done mid-day for each large slate and ownership projections can change sometimes drastically as the day goes on.
Trae Young & Tyus Jones
Verdict: Good Chalk – In a rare same projected ownership, it appears both Young and Jones will be the two highest owned point guards tonight. However, they are both chalk for different reasons. Young gets a great matchup against the Warriors and though his price has increased it is warranted since he has been seeing usage well over 30% over his last five games. On top of that, Young has been scoring in bunches, ranging between 29-and-49 in his last five games. Jones falls as chalk due to the injury to Ja Morant. In Jones’ first start he saw 25 minutes and a usage rate of 19%. These are completely in play at a price of $4,000. I view both of these plays as good chalk.
Verdict: Undecided – Graham to me will always be a good play and a bad play at the same time. One thing of note, he is wildly consistent. He sees similar minutes (in a tight range), similar usage rates, and similar fantasy outputs. His range of outcomes over the last month has been between 24-and-45 fantasy points, which is a high floor, but a limited ceiling. I think Graham is a safe play, whether or not he should be chalk, I am not quite sure. If you are chasing absolute ceilings, then I think I rather take a shot on Hield or Booker today.
Verdict: Good Chalk – Giannis played only 20 minutes in a 40-point blowout against the Hornets and in doing so had a 50% (!) usage rate. I honestly don’t think I have ever seen one player with a 50% usage rate, but we are talking about Giannis here. It is expensive, but there is enough to off-set it on this slate. Plug it and move on.
Verdict: Bad Chalk – Due to inconsistency in minutes and a usage rate under 20%, Holmes is always bad chalk to me. Holmes hasn’t cracked over 20% usage since October and his big performances rest on the ability for blocks and steals. A matchup with the Bulls is a positive one and his bigger games have come against the Wizards and Suns, two teams I would view as positive matchups, so if you want to chase the matchup that’s fine, but you’re chasing it with 33% of the field.
Verdict: Undecided – Since his 0-for-11 performance a week ago, Embiid has rattled off three straight games over 5.5x value and a usage rate that we have not seen out of him this season, ranging between 32-and-40 percent. There aren’t a ton of big names on this slate so I think you either go with Embiid or Robin Lopez to pay down. Both I view as strong plays.