The Primer – DFS NHL Edition for Saturday, November 30th
Games on the Main Slate: 11
Games with Projected 6.5 goal totals: TOR @ BUF, WAS @ DET, CAR @ TB, NSH @ FLA, CHI @ COL
Favourites that are -180 or greater: TOR, CGY
Where to Expect Chalk
- The Leafs and Sabres will drop the puck again on the second half of a back to back, after the Sabres won the first game 6-4 in Buffalo. Freddie Andersen will start in net tonight for the Leafs, who are -230 favourites, and I would expect their top line along with Reilly, Barrie and Andersen to be some of the highest owned players/stacks on the slate.
- I expect Calgary’s top line and PP unit to be popular, as large home favourites against the Sens.
- Nathan MacKinnon and company (line 1, PP1) should be a popular stack, playing at home in a game that should be a run and gun affair at home against the Blackhawks.
- Washington will be quite popular, playing on the road against the lowly Red Wings.
Some Edges to Attack
- I’m going back to the well with an over-weight position on the Leafs today. TOR1, TOR2, and TOR PP1 are all strong plays today, I’d expect TOR1 to be around 15-20% owned (a little less for Tavares, Reilly, Barrie – even lower on TOR2) – but I like making a call here with an over-weight stack.
- I also like going over-weight on COL PP1, getting significant exposure to the Avs, who should be one of the highest scoring teams for the Main Slate tonight. Nathan MacKinnon continues to drive advanced metrics in pretty much every match-up, and I think they have a great night at home tonight.
- Tampa Bay’s top line is in a great spot tonight as they play on home ice against Carolina. I have a feeling that this line will be lower owned than they should be tonight, and with Reimer likely between the pipes for the Canes, I like Tampa’s chance of lighting the lamp a lot tonight.
Some Places/Players I’ll be Fading
- I’ll be off of Calgary tonight, I simply prefer other stacking options on the board. I think this game will be pretty low scoring overall.
- Pittsburgh has been scoring at a great clip of late, but with a tough match-up on the road in St. Louis, I’ll be pivoting away from a team that I have loved to stack a lot lately.
Best of luck for those playing today and Happy Thanksgiving weekend everyone! If you have any questions at all, you can find me on Twitter @bradsgotmoxy!