Diving deep into player ownership expectations for week 12 NFL DFS contests for the 2019-2020 season.
In this article, we are going to look at the projected most popular player at each position using Awesemo’s ownership projections and determine if the popular play is what we like to call Good Chalk or players that you should be playing or Bad Chalk or players that you should be underweight on.
FanDuel: Matt Ryan (23.2%)/ DraftKings: Matt Ryan (17.9%)
Verdict: Good Chalk- I have not made lineups yet this week but I plan on having at least 50% exposure to Ryan this week. Ryan is just in that good of a spot as he takes on the bad Bucs secondary. This season the Bucs are allowing the second-most passing yards per game, have allowed the second-most passing touchdowns, and have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
FanDuel: Alvin Kamara (35.2%)/ DraftKings: Alvin Kamara (26.5%)
Verdict: Undecided- I like Kamara a lot this week but if he is going to be this highly owned I am most likely going to be underweight on him compared to the field as I don’t think he outscores Nick Chubb show has a very similar salary to Kamara but is projected for ten percent lower ownership. With that being said if you wanted to match the field or go over the field on Kamara this week I can’t fault you for it.
FanDuel: Julio Jones (35.3%)/ DraftKings: Julio Jones (26.5%)
Verdict: Good Chalk- I think I like Calvin Ridley over Julio this week due to salaries but I am going to have plenty of both in my lineups. The Falcons passing attack is in such a great spot this week against the Bucs that I think it is foolish to not at least be relative to the field on the main pieces in the attack.
FanDuel: Zach Ertz (38.2%)/ DraftKings: Zach Ertz (17.9%)
Verdict: Good Chalk- Tight end is such a wasteland this week it is hard not to lock in Ertz based on the sheer volume that Ertz is seeing. Ertz has back-to-back games with 11 targets with nine catches in each of those games. Ertz is also in one of the best match-ups for tight ends in the NFL as he faces a Seahawks team that is allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends this season.
FanDuel: Browns (20.3%)
Verdict: Good Chalk- Until things change any defense against the Dolphins is going to be good chalk in my book. The Dolphins have allowed at least six fantasy points to each defense they have faced this season and rank in the bottom five in points per game, sacks allowed and giveaways. With that all being said while I think the Browns are good chalk I am going to be underweight on them relative to the field this week as I am just that high on the Steelers defense.
DraftKings: Broncos (10.7%)
Verdict: Good Chalk- I thought I was going to hate the Broncos as chalk but the more I think about it the more I dig them at their salaries. The Broncos have at least seven fantasy points in five of their past seven games and the Bills offense though it hasn’t been the case the past several weeks can allow sacks and turn the ball over in bunches.