Sharing our core plays and cheat sheet for the Week 12 2019 NFL DFS slate on FanDuel.
In this column, we’ll share 4 core plays for FanDuel on a weekly basis, as well as our cheat sheet for the week’s main slate.
QB – Matt Ryan, ATL vs TB, $7,900
For those that haven’t followed the Falcons too closely of late, you may have missed the sudden awakening of their dormant defensive group and utter domination the last couple weeks allowing just 12 combined points to both NO and CAR. In the process, Ryan saw his average PATT drop from what is generally in the 40s down to the low-30s – but that was also due in part to the defensive group getting the job done in the scoring department, too.
For this game on Sunday, I do still think that Ryan is a premium target for DFS purposes, though. Vegas sees this as just a -4 spread for the Falcons, and the game is at least a field goal in terms of total points vs the next closest challenger (SEA @ PHI). I’m expecting a closer game than we’ve seen the last couple weeks, and with how poor TB has been defensively through the air this season, Ryan is primed for a 300+ yards, 2-3 TD kind of day at a very fair price.
RB – Alvin Kamara, NO vs CAR, $8,300
Kamara has seemingly come back to health after missing a few games earlier this season, and has now seen back-to-back weeks with 10 passing targets and at least 8 receptions in each. Despite not being a full point PPR scoring format, he’s still averaging just shy of 15 FPPG in that span, while seeing his rushing attempts jump to 13 from 4 previously (when the Falcons stymied the Saints in week 10, as mentioned above).
CAR is the league’s softest run defense this year, and even though we’re not talking about Kamara getting the rock 20+ times on the ground, he’s going to be used creatively in a number of capacities to get the ball in open space so he can do what he does best. I’m happy to roster him as a high floor RB1 here with plenty of ceiling, too.
WR – Calvin Ridley, ATL vs TB, $6,700
The chalky stack here with Ryan is going to be Julio Jones. Don’t get me wrong, I love me some Julio and am certainly going to have plenty of exposure on the slate. However, I do want to call out Ridley as a very attractive mid-range WR in a premium spot with game flow on his side as well.
Not only are the Falcons without Austin Hooper (generally the #2 passing target for Ryan), but Devonta Freeman and Ito Smith continue to be sidelined leaving Brian Hill (more of a plodder and straight-ahead runner) as arguably Ridley’s top competition for targets after Julio. Ridley is coming off a 8-143-1 game in week 11, and in 4 of his last 6 games has either gone for 70+ yards or scored (week 10 and 7 being the outliers with both situations being pretty easily explained or expected based on match-up or a week 10 blowout where ATL didn’t need to pass from a volume perspective to get the win). Keep Ridley in your back pocket for a WR2 or even WR3 slot this week in an excellent spot for 5+ receptions, 80+ yards, and good chance at scoring.
TE – Zach Ertz, PHI vs SEA, $6,100
Looking at the team stats tool on FC, we can see that the Seahawks rank as the 4th weakest DEF/ST against the position on the year, allowing the 5th most YPG to TEs (just over 60) despite settling in pretty average in terms of TD/G allowed to TEs. The only outlier there from a scoring perspective is the Cardinals, who actually have the week off for their bye.
Well, when we think about how banged up the Eagles are on offence right now, it’s not surprising to see that Carson Wentz has been funnelling targets to Ertz the last couple weeks with 22 targets (11 in each) going his way and 18 receptions (9 in each) for 94+ yards apiece.
Against a bottom 5 ranked defense against the position, and a great game for exposure, Ertz is an easy target to feel comfortable rostering in all formats considering the price point (he could easily be $500+ higher) and intricate role as a part of the offense.
CHEAT SHEET – Main Slate
Note that we update our cheat sheets on the weekend, as new continues to roll out ahead of the 1pm EST lock. Check back for updates before you finalize your teams!
$ Tier QB RB WR TE DST High Drew Brees (8.5k / 20.98) Alvin Kamara (8.3k / 19.78) Julio Jones (8.4k / 19.42) Zach Ertz (6.1k / 11.85) Browns (4.5k / 8.38) Russell Wilson (8.2k / 20.00) Nick Chubb (8.2k / 17.09) Mike Evans (8k / 15.02) Darren Waller (6.2k / 11.02) Saints (4.9k / 8.54) Christian McCaffrey (10.5k / 22.17) Michael Thomas (9.2k / 18.64) Patriots (4.6k / 7.74) Chris Godwin (7.8k / 13.76) Medium Matt Ryan (7.9k / 22.16) Leonard Fournette (7k / 16.35) Odell Beckham Jr. (7k / 13.72) Cameron Brate (5.4k / 4.97) Broncos (3.8k / 7.10) Baker Mayfield (7.5k / 18.16) Le'Veon Bell (7.3k / 14.45) Calvin Ridley (6.7k / 13.46) Jacob Hollister (5.8k / 6.57) Falcons (4.3k / 7.53) Joe Mixon (6.7k / 12.11) John Brown (6.5k / 12.02) Ryan Griffin (5.6k / 6.25) Jaylen Samuels (6.9k / 12.23) DK Metcalf (6.7k / 10.53) Low Carson Wentz (7.3k / 18.05) Miles Sanders (5.6k / 12.38) Terry McLaurin (5.8k / 11.01) Greg Olsen (5.1k / 8.78) Redskins (3k / 6.84) Derek Carr (7.4k / 17.71) Brian Hill (5.5k / 10.06) DJ Moore (6.4k / 11.84) Dallas Goedert (5.2k / 7.41) Devin Singletary (6.3k / 11.89) DeVante Parker (6k / 10.07) Phillip Lindsay (6.3k / 11.65) Russell Gage (5.3k / 7.32) James White (6.1k / 10.40) Jordan Matthews (4.5k / 5.05) Latavius Murray (5.4k / 9.88)