The Primer – NBA DFS Expert Analysis – November 20, 2019

Featuring in-depth analysis to help you crack the winning code for the NBA DFS slate on November 20, 2019

In this article, we are going to go position by position breaking down the top plays and values for you. We will be using FanDuel’s pricing and positions due to the multiple position eligibility for most players on DraftKings.

Point Guard

Top Play

Luka Doncic

Remember when Luka Doncic inexplicably fell to #3 in the NBA Draft? Think the Kings and Suns would like a do-over as Doncic has exploded into one of the best players in the league. He’s sporting a 31.2% usage on the season and averaging 1.31 FPPM while playing well over 30 minutes a night. On a Mavericks team that simply doesn’t have any other weapons with Prozingis nowhere near old self. The Warriors are injury-depleted and on a back to back so that shouldn’t be an issue.

Others to consider: Trae Young, Russell Westbrook

Top Value

Derrick Rose

Sure Rose is on a minutes cap of about 25 minutes a night but the Pistons need his scoring on the wing as Bruce Brown simply hasn’t gotten it done. Bulls play super fast which should help Rose here who is sporting a 27.4% usage rate and averaging 1.07 FPPM. With Hutchinson out for the Bulls, they will be running a lot of 3 guard lineups which will help Rose’s minutes.

Others to consider: Isaiah Thomas, Kris Dunn

Shooting Guard

Top Play 

Bradley Beal

The Wizards offense revolves around Beal who has taken it to the next level in the last 3 games posting 33.5% USG or higher in each of those games while attempting 27, 22 and 26 shots. The Spurs defense will take a hit tonight with no Derrick White so should be all systems go for Beal.

Others to Consider: James Harden, Spencer Dinwiddie

Top Value

Bryn Forbes

With Derrick White out, Forbes will get all the minutes he can handle against a Wizards team who gives up the 4th most points to shooting guards on the season. Forbes isn’t the highest usage guy with only a 18% USG but in a fast game against the Wizards, he is in a great spot to mash value.

Others to Consider: Donte DiVincenzo, Delon Wright

Small Forward

Top Play 

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Giannis in his 5 of his last 6 games has played 36 minutes while posting at least a 33.3% USG rate and the one he didn’t because it was a blowout not because he couldn’t handle the load. With no Middleton for the foreseeable future, that should continue. My personal model wanted me to project Giannis for 83 fantasy points. No way that’s the mean projection but shows you the upside he has in this spot.

Others To Consider: Pascal Siakam, Jaylen Brown

Top Value

Troy Brown

Players have bad nights and Troy Brown’s last game was one to forget; however, his price plummeted as a result. Brown should play 25-30 minutes tonight against the Spurs who give up the 7th most points to opposing small forwards. Brown isn’t the highest usage player but he does a lot of things on the floor which will be amplified by this pace up game.

Others to Consider:  Glenn Robinson III, Joe Harris

Power Forward

Top Play 

Bam Adebayo

PF is tough today with no real top options. The Cleveland frontcourt gives up the 6th most points to opposing PF’s/C’s in the league and that is with Tristan Thompson who is out tonight for rest. Bam should be in a glorified layup line tonight.

Others to Consider:  Blake Griffin, Jayson Tatum

Top Value

Robert Covington

Covington has been the victim of poor match-ups and blowouts this year but the price has plummeted as a result despite a very solid 0.94 FPPM on the season. With Wiggins out, there is additional usage available for Covington. In the end tho, the match-up doesn’t matter too much for him, it really comes down to if he gets steals and makes 3’s, in this super competitive game against Utah both could happen.

Others to Consider:  Omari Spellman, Daniel Gafford

Center

Top Play 

Brook Lopez

Giannis can’t do all the scoring and Brook Lopez has been picking up the load since Middleton went down sporting a 1.18 FPPM (up from his .96 FPPM average) and draws a matchup against the Hawks who don’t have a center that can defend Lopez inside and out. As a non-stud, he’ll always be a bit scoring reliant but love the spot for him.

Others to Consider: Andre Drummond, Joel Embiid

 

 

About CJ Kaltenbach

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