The Primer – NBA DFS Expert Analysis – November 16, 2019

Featuring in-depth analysis to help you crack the winning code for the NBA DFS slate on November 16, 2019

In this article, we are going to go position by position breaking down the top plays and values for you. We will be using FanDuel’s pricing and positions due to the multiple position eligibility for most players on DraftKings.

Point Guard

Top Play

Trae Young

Trae Young this year has been James Harden Lite and yet can’t get into superstar pricing yet. Trae Young has been sporting a 42.5% USG rate and a 1.73 FPPM rate while playing over 34 min a night. He draws a good match-up against the Clippers and they don’t have the best rim protection in the world which should allow Trae Young to continue his drive game which facilitates a bunch of his baskets and assists.

Others to consider: Damian Lillard, Eric Bledsoe

Top Value

Austin Rivers

With Eric Gordon out for a month after a knee cleanup + Westbrook sitting for load management, Austin Rivers chalk is back in our lives. In the one game that Eric Gordon missed this year, Rivers played a season-high 27 minutes but that game got out of hand late so his range could be from 28 to 34 minutes.

Others to consider: Chris Clemons, Aaron Holiday, Michael Carter-Williams

Shooting Guard

Top Play 

James Harden

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to pick James Harden as the best play at SG but doesn’t mean it isn’t true. He has a 39.8% USG rate and is averaging 1.58 FPPM with no Westbrook/House or Gordon on the floor. Factor in a match-up against a Pacers team which as I mentioned above loves to concede baskets at the rim and you get a fantastic play even at the elevated price. (Again if RW sits, becomes an exponentially better play as well)

Others to Consider: Lou Williams, DeMar DeRozan

Top Value

Ben McLemore

Like Austin Rivers above with Eric Gordon/Russell Westbrook being out, Ben McLemore should get a solid 28-34 minutes a game. McLemore is a pure scorer so he’s gotta be making baskets to be a positive to your fantasy teams but in a spot for big minutes, he’s a value play that can win you a GPP if he gets hot. Expect the ownership to be lower than you’d think due to his foul trouble limited minutes in the first game without Gordon.

Others to Consider: Spencer Dinwiddie, Terence Davis

Small Forward

Top Play 

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Giannis in his last 4 games has played 36 minutes while posting at least a 33.3% USG rate. With no Middleton for the foreseeable future that should continue and while it’s a pace down spot against the Pacers, Giannis should have no trouble attacking the interior against TJ Leaf and Jakarr Sampson.

Others To Consider: Pascal Siakam, Marcus Morris

Top Value

Joe Harris

With no Kyrie Irving tonight the Nets are going to need scoring against teh Bulls and this is where Joe Harris steps in. Joe Harris is a pure shooter so fully expect him to play huge minutes here to help with the scoring load. The better news is he faces the Bulls who love to give up points to everyone.

Others to Consider: Taurean Prince, Jarrett Culver

Power Forward

Top Play 

Jabari Parker

PF is tough today with the top options being given really big taxes for being good at basketball. Parker draws a nice match-up against the Clippers who are above average in points allowed to PF’s on the season but if Kawhi Leonard does miss this game the game will be played pretty quick which is to Jabari’s liking.

Others to Consider:  Domantas Sabonis, LaMarcus Aldridge

Top Value

Robert Covington

Covington has been the victim of poor match-ups and blowouts this year but the price has plummeted as a result despite a very solid 0.94 FPPM on the season. With Wiggins status unknown there is potential for higher upside in the usage category if he misses again and this game against Houston could get fast in a hurry.

Others to Consider:  PJ Tucker, Trey Lyles

Center

Top Play 

Karl-Anthony Towns

A potentially limited ceiling at this insane tag but with no Clint Capela, the match-up for Towns can’t get any better. If Wiggins misses again, he’ll get a nice usage bump in a great match-up. Twolves also surrendered pretty early against the Wizards so not too worried about the b2b here.

Others to Consider: Montrezl Harrell, Wendell Carter Jr.

 

 

About CJ Kaltenbach

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