Sharing core plays and a cheat sheet for the November 16, 2019 NBA DFS slate on FanDuel.
Welcome to our NBA Core Plays & Cheat Sheet column for FanDuel.
We’ll be sharing this article with you for all key slates (2 games+) over the course of the 2019-2020 NBA season. Hope you enjoy!
Core Plays – Main Slate
There’s a good chance that Kawhi sits tonight given the questionable tag (not just because of load management, but rather because of an actual injury). If that’s the case, I want to make sure to have some exposure to George. He was electric in his debut, playing less than 25 minutes but with a near 50% usage rate when on the floor, scoring 30 (real) points and putting up mid-40s fantasy production. If Kawhi is sidelined, they’ll need to lean on him more, and even though he may only see 27-30 minutes as he’s eased back, the dominance in usage in a plus match-up is undeniable.
PG – Kendrick Nunn, MIA vs NOP, $5,400
As far a DvP digging going, it doesn’t get much better than Nunn against the Pelicans here. This is easily the most exploitable situation on the board today, with the Pelicans allowing 56.9 FPPG to opposing point guards this year (tops on the slate by a country mile), and Nunn has really been stepping up in his last 2 games to not only play big minutes (37 in each) but put together noteworthy DFS outputs with 33.1 and 45.0 fantasy points in those 2 games. In an even better match-up with mid-20s usage expected, he’s an elite option this evening.
PG – Fred VanVleet, TOR @ DAL, $7,800
I feel like I will be a bit of a broken record here with Freddie as long as his price is reasonable. The guy is playing a ton of minutes right now for the shorthanded Raptors, with 39, 45 and 40 in his last 3 games (49.4, 34.4, 52.3 FP in that span). That will continue to be the case with Kyle Lowry on the shelf, and until he’s closer to $9,000 – he is basically an auto-start for me. He continues to do major damage when he’s on the floor, is lethal from distance and is accruing steals/assists at an elite ratio. Keep playing him in what is actually not a bad match-up for him against the Mavs based on size and style of play. OG Anunoby is a fantastic play as well, especially at a slight price decrease in a match-up where I could see him playing 33-37 minutes to body-up with Luka Doncic.
SG – James Harden, HOU @ MIN, $12,700
Russell Westbrook sitting this one out means more Beard – and even though he’s sky high in terms of salary, he continues to show us that he’s playable in cash games at minimum at elevated price points. He’s now scored at least 60 fantasy points in 6 straight games for the Rockets, holding ridiculous minutes played totals and elite usage in that time as well (40%+ most nights). With Russell off the floor, Harden has a 42.9% usage rate and is averaging 64 FPPG per 40 minutes played (a safe projection tonight for him here). I wouldn’t go with him in GPPs as the ROI ceiling just isn’t there, but for cash games in a plus match-up – go nuts.
Note – if Andrew Wiggins is back today for the Wolves, I still really like him at the level he’s playing. However with the passing of his grandmother, he may be slightly distracted even if on the court and is a little riskier than normal.
MIL without Khris Middleton @ IND
I’m all about Eric Bledsoe tonight against the Pacers, as he really sees the biggest net benefit with Middleton on the shelf. However, the more interesting way to look for DFS value are Sterling Brown or Wesley Matthews, who are both under $4,000 and likely to see 22-25 minutes for the Bucks here (Matthews could be looking at a higher total thanks to his defensive abilities).
For Brown, in the 17 games he played last year with 20-29 minutes, he averaged 9.1 points, 4.6 rebounds, 2.4 assists and just shy of 1.0 steals+blocks. Those numbers would play very safely from a ROI perspective tonight. Matthews on the other hand, is in the twilight stage of his career and is far more useful for corner 3s and his defensive abilities. He’s started every game this year for the Bucks, but has only scored 18+ FP once in his last 8 games. The potential for increased usage is there, as he did peak for 17.3% last game (27 minutes) – but Brown is more likely to get the edge there. If you want to punt at least one spot here today, both Matthews and Brown are the guys on MIL at SG that I would look to for 5-6x ROI potential.
Cheat Sheet – Main Slate
$ Tier PG SG SF PF C High Luka Doncic (11.4k / 45.13) James Harden (12.7k / 66.56) Giannis Antetokounmpo (12.6k / 60.81) Domantas Sabonis (9.3k / 43.50) Karl-Anthony Towns (11.5k / 56.28) Andrew Wiggins (8.8k / 0.00) Pascal Siakam (10.1k / 39.22) Kristaps Porzingis (8.6k / 38.67) Medium Eric Bledsoe (7.9k / 34.13) Fred VanVleet (7.8k / 32.09) Paul George (9.1k / 39.57) LaMarcus Aldridge (7.9k / 38.90) Hassan Whiteside (7.9k / 39.52) Terry Rozier (7.4k / 29.13) Devonte' Graham (7.2k / 26.73) Jabari Parker (7.4k / 32.66) Montrezl Harrell (7.6k / 40.97) Low Kendrick Nunn (5.4k / 36.76) Wesley Matthews (3.6k / 16.86) OG Anunoby (5.7k / 23.09) Robert Covington (5.8k / 29.54) Alex Len (4.1k / 20.90) Goran Dragic (5.8k / 0.00) Norman Powell (4.6k / 21.34) Kenrich Williams (4.8k / 30.34) Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (4.5k / 21.16) Marc Gasol (6k / 32.69) Dennis Smith Jr. (3.9k / 18.68) Sterling Brown (3.9k / 16.47) Jarrett Culver (4.2k / 24.33) P.J. Tucker (5k / 26.47) Damian Jones (3.5k / 16.24) Tim Hardaway Jr. (3.9k / 18.49)