The College Football Rundown | November 16th, 2019 – Expert DraftKings & FanDuel Advice

Welcome back to the College Football Rundown. The goal of this article is to highlight players listed on the cheat sheet in a more in-depth fashion, including some tricks and tips to help better you as a player.

Quarterback

Aaron Gordon, WSU (DK: $8,500 | FD: N/A)

We start at the top with what may seem like an overpay when compared to the $9,000 price we pay for Jalen Hurts, but Gordon is the one rare absolute air-it-out passer that can rack up fantasy points strictly through passing yards and touchdowns. As you know I like to get my fair share of rushing equity out of my quarterback but honestly, it is not needed here. Gordon has thrown for over 400 yards in seven of his nine games, including four of those going over 440 yards and one going for 570. The air raid offense is awesome when you have someone who can run it and Gordon has proven that he can with almost 4,000 passing yards and 34 touchdown passes so far on the year. Gordon has also proved to be matchup proof, as he has surpassed 400 against Cal and Oregon. This week it is a home game for the Cougars against Stanford, a rival, and team allowing 260 yards through the air per game. That number seems low, but that is against teams not throwing 45 times a game. Gordon should be able to navigate the skies with ease and despite his price being high, he is still one of, if not the best play this weekend.

Brock Purdy, ISU (DK: $8,200 | FD: $10,200)

Play quarterbacks against Texas. It is a simple formula that we have been following all year. Skylar Thompson let us down a bit last week after throwing two first-quarter touchdowns and then going quiet the rest of the game. But the “play quarterbacks against Texas” changes its tune when you get a good quarterback against them. Brock Purdy almost led a comeback against Oklahoma last weekend and finished with five touchdown passes and 42 fantasy points. On the year Purdy has 20 passing touchdowns and seven rushing touchdowns. I am not going to type a lot to oversell this play. Purdy will be my highest owned quarterback on this slate and outside of injury, his floor is the highest of all quarterbacks.

Spencer Sanders, OKST (DK: $6,900 | FD: $9,100)

I preface this next statement with yeah it kind of sounds dumb, but, the loss of Tylan Wallace may end up helping Sanders fantasy production in the end. Yikes. Alright, so, what I mean, is though we only have one game without Wallace, Sanders did attempt 19 rushing attempts. With a player like Sanders we are relying heavily on the rushing yardage and potential touchdowns to help him hit his projection. The entire offense can’t be Chuba Hubbard, so Sanders needs to be more creative with his play and his legs. Sanders passing numbers were way down last week, as he only attempted 15 passes with two of them going for touchdowns to Dillon Stoner. Of course, with Chuba Hubbard in the offense, you are going to see a lot of lost production out of Sanders, but this week’s matchup with Kansas is just too good for me. Whether the gameplan is to focus on the pass or run, each should be able to happen at will. Sure, Kansas has seen a few games of strong play, but overall their defense is just not good. This game has the second-highest total on the week with Oklahoma State having the highest team total on the entire slate. This is a tournament play for me, but the price under $7,000 is nice against Kansas.

Clayton Tune, UH (DK: $6,200 | FD: N/A)

In Memphis’ last game they allowed near 600 yards of total offense to SMU. Though Houston is not at all SMU, this is a rivalry game and we are getting Tune at a pretty low price. The quarterback value isn’t there this week and I debated between Tune and Max Duggan for this final spot. Tune passed for 407 yards against SMU a few weeks back and again, the last game we saw with Memphis we saw them get absolutely torched. Is that too small of a sample to judge? Yeah, probably. It is fair to call that an outlier. Vegas doesn’t necessarily think so though as this game has the highest total on the board at 70 right now. Tune doesn’t have an enormous ceiling and I wouldn’t run him out as your only quarterback, though I do like him as a super-flex play over some running backs or receivers in this same price range.

Others to consider: Trevor Lawrence, CLEM | Max Duggan, TCU

Running back

Chuba Hubbard, OKST (DK: $8,800 | FD: $10,600) 

As we get deeper into the season I think I need to explain this play less and less. Check the game logs, in this instance, it is just fine to box score watch and make your determination. 1,604 yards, 18 touchdowns, loss of star receiver, maybe best matchup on the board, top three team total. You just have to decide if the price is worth it for you.

Travis Etienne, CLEM (DK: $8,100 | FD: $9,900)

We hit a four-week stretch early in the season where we couldn’t get Etienne to break the 20 fantasy point mark. We now have a four game stretch where he hasn’t fallen below the 35 point mark. This is the Etienne we know and now that Clemson is fighting for a playoff spot it is no more getting the backups reps, it is full steam ahead, score as much as you can. In reality, the number of carries isn’t high or up, he is only averaging about 15 a game if we exclude the game against Wofford. However, the touchdowns are there as he has seven in his last three games. This is similar to Hubbard, you should know this name by now and know what he can do. This is another positive matchup. You just have to decide if the price is worth it as we can’t jam in all these top guys.

Breece Hall, ISU (DK: $6,800 | FD: $8,700)

I had my doubts about Hall early on which led me to sitting on the sidelines for his week eight performance of 43 fantasy points. He has come back to earth a bit the last two weeks, but still has games of 29 and 22 fantasy points. Hall has seen steady volume and has 13 receptions out of the backfield over the past three weeks. It goes without saying just how important passing game touches are for a running back in a full PPR format. The best part here is his price didn’t change at all so we are still getting Hall way under what I believe he should be priced at. I touched on the matchup with Brock Purdy, but from Hall’s perspective, it is just as good.

Ta’Zhawn Henry, TTU (DK: $4,900 | FD: $6,600)

Fellow Texas Tech running back SaRodorick Thompson is currently listed as questionable for this game and though his status is key to this play I don’t think it makes or breaks it. Henry actually started the game last week against West Virginia and the coaching staff mentioned that they wanted to get him more involved in the offense. Once Thompson went down, Henry saw all the rushing game work, but even before the injury, Henry had two rushing touchdowns. I don’t see a world where Thompson comes back from an ankle injury, starts the game, and out carries Henry 3:1 or something of sorts. The best part is after a two-touchdown, 22 carry performance, Henry’s price went up a whole $100. Now, TCU does have a strong rush defense, in fact they have a strong everything defense, but the Texas Tech offense is still projected for four touchdowns, so Vegas doesn’t seem too concerned about paper numbers.

Others to consider: Pooka Williams, KU | Keontay Ingram, TX | Tyler Badie, MIZZ

Wide receiver

Devin Duvernay, TX (DK: $6,800 | FD: $9,200) 

Simply put, Duvernay has been one of the most consistent fantasy performers all year and his numbers and price is only being held down by his recent lack of touchdowns. That is not even to say he hasn’t had any, as Duvernay still has three over his last three games. 8-100, 8-173, 9-100, those are his last three games, with double-digit targets in each game. The status of Collin Johnson also weighs a bit on this play, though it remains to be seen if that would open up more targets or shift a double-team his way. The prices for wide receivers aren’t that high this week with top option Sage Surratt being ruled out for the season.

Brandon Arconado, WSU (DK: $6,700 | FD: N/A)

In an offense that runs the air-raid, find the guy getting the targets. Though Washington State has a ton of mouths to feed, Brandon Arconado is the guy leading the target share right now. Over the last three games, Arconado has 36 targets and has hauled in 27 of them for catches. Arconado is second on the team in targets, despite missing three games in early October. Arconado has three straight games over 100 yards and four touchdowns across that span. With him being at full health he is the number one option in this offense right now in an offense that throws the ball over 50 times per game.

Jalen Reagor, TCU (DK: $5,700 | FD: $7,200)

This is a bit of a gut/tournament play here as it is hard to tell anyone to slam a player in the TCU offense. However, TCU faces a Texas Tech passing defense that just got torched by West Virginia of all teams. West Virginia wideout Sam James caught 14 passes for 223 yards and Jalen Reagor is viewed as much higher of a prospect. I am not trying to make some deductive call here, though TCU should have no issue throwing the ball. Reagor holds a 2:1 advantage over the next closest guy on TCU when it comes to target share and despite the one catch last week, he still saw seven targets. A positive matchup should help Duggan and Reagor get back on track and I think you get them at very low ownership

I am only writing up three receivers again this week as there are several options but yet no top tier options on the slate. I feel I could write about 12 different ones or none at all. So instead here is just a quick run-through. Easop Winston is no longer the top option in the Washington State offense and his price tag isn’t warranted above Arconado. The Alabama passing game is exactly what it is. Anyone of Jeudy, Smith, Ruggs can go off at any given time. They all weigh heavily with the status of Tua. Clemson wideouts are in another great spot and neither Higgins or Ross has seen a large price jump. Though they are big-play threats, the overall volume has not been there for either. Damonte Coxie and Antonio Gibson are in good spots for Memphis against Houston, though they both feel like a bit of a chase. This is a high total game so using them both is very much in play. Marquez Stevenson at $5,600 is one of my favorite plays for tournaments as he has slate breaking ability. We, however, have seen this play fall flat in positive matchups and Clayton Tune is a little rougher around the edges than D’Eriq King. Finally, I will touch on Wake Forest. Sage Surratt and Scotty Washington will be out, which leaves Kendall Hinton as the top option out of the slot. Normally I would label Hinton a smash this week but against Clemson it falls more in the line of tournament play. If we are trusting the depth chart Steven Claude and Waydale Jones will each start this game. If I am going to throw a dart at either I will at the $3,000 Jones.

 

My projections are now live on FantasyCruncher and will be available for every slate all season for both DraftKings and FanDuel. Though this content is free I encourage you to take your game to the next level by considering a subscription to FC Premium. If you are a lower stakes player, FC Lite gets you all the tools that Premium does, just with a lower lineup crunch cap. I will post the link below for anyone interested. I will be in Discord chat (something that comes with a subscription) before lock of all slates if you have questions. You can also reach out to me on Twitter @iKezims

https://www.fantasycruncher.com/premium-signup/CFB/monthly

 

About James Smizek

James is a daily fantasy sports veteran, dating all the way back to his days of writing content on DraftStreet.com for contest tickets. James specializes in NCAAF and NFL with a side helping of Tennis and some MLB/NBA. James is from Wisconsin and a die-hard Milwaukee Brewers fan. You can reach out to James on Twitter @iKezims

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