The Primer – NBA DFS Expert Analysis – November 12, 2019

Featuring in-depth analysis to help you crack the winning code for the NBA DFS slate on November 12, 2019

In this article, we are going to go position by position breaking down the top plays and values for you. We will be using FanDuel’s pricing and positions due to the multiple position eligibility for most players on DraftKings.

Point Guard

Top Play

Damian Lillard

When players get hurt everyone focuses on the effect of that players team (and I will do so in the value section) but the effect it has on opponents goes under talked about in NBA DFS. The Kings are currently ranked 14th against PG’s on the season making it a below average match-up for Lillard. However, that DvP was with De’Aaron Fox on the floor and going from him playing 35 min a night to 48 min a night of Corey Joseph and Yogi Ferrell makes it a top end match-up. Ownership should be down here because it isn’t a spot that will pop up in models unless you update to account for the loss of Fox. Lillard is a dominant player in any match-up sporting a 29.1% USG and a 1.22 FPPM on the year and tonight will make for a sneaky stud option.

Others to consider: Malcolm Brogdon, Mike Conley

Top Value

Cory Joseph

I really wanted to write-up Yogi Ferrell as the pivot off of Joseph but Luke Walton likes his veterans too much for me to trust the Yogi minutes. With Fox out, we should see Joseph go from 24 min a game on average to somewhere in the 28-32 min range against a Portland team that gives up the 9th most points to opposing point guards. In a pace-up game for the Kings, it’s hard to ignore Joseph (even if I personally think Yogi Ferrell is the better player).

Others to consider: Yogi Ferrell, Coby White, Aaron Holiday

Shooting Guard

Top Play 

Buddy Hield

With no Fox, Buddy will see a usage bump today on his already solid 25.4% usage which makes him a very solid SG option. The Blazers are allowing the 13th most points to SG’s and the Blazers have been even playing smaller lately with Simons/Trent Jr. getting more minutes in the rotation. As a result of this we could even see a minutes boost for Hield which isn’t needed for him to be a top option at this price but would be a nice cherry on top.

Others to Consider: Jimmy Butler, Donovan Mitchell

Top Value

Hamidou Diallo

Bogdan Bogdanovic is a great value option for all the reasons I mentioned for Buddy Hield so instead of a copy/paste lets talk about another value situation. Terrence Ferguson has been starting for the Thunder averaging 24 min a game which gives Diallo a nice window to pick up extra minutes. Schroder has already been averaging 29 minutes a game so there isn’t much for him to take and with Bazeley/Nader playing bad so far this year. While Diallo has been a lower usage player across his career he’s actually sported usage rates above 20% in three other fast paced games this year (Pelicans, Portland and Houston). At his near-min price salary, he has a road to picking up 23-29 fantasy points which would be phenomenal.

Others to Consider: Bogdan Bogdanovic, Dennis Schroder

Small Forward

Top Play 

Lebron James

Sometimes you need a very detailed write-up to explain why a certain player is the top play on the slate but for Lebron James it’s pretty straightforward. It’s healthy Lebron James. You don’t need to know that he has a 31.7% USG rate this year averaging an insane 1.50 FPPM while playing a ton of minutes and draws a match-up.

Others To Consider: Will Barton, Tobias Harris

Top Value

Luke Kennard

With Derrick Rose and Blake Griffin out for rest, Kennard, despite his price increase, becomes a great play. Kennard has been playing close to 38 minutes a night averaging a whopping 16 shots a game in his last 5 games and draws a match-up against the Miami Heat who allow the 12th most points in the league to opposing SF’s. I hate playing chalk guys who are scoring dependent but hard to see a road to fade Kennard at this point.

Others to Consider: Joe Harris, Kent Bazemore

Power Forward

Top Play 

Anthony Davis

Given the weakness of PF, Anthony Davis wins this crown by default. Despite playing through a shoulder injury, Anthony Davis is still sporting a 29.5% USG while playing 32.2 minutes a night at a 1.67 FPPM clip. Obviously, I get worried any time I hear the words Anthony Davis and injury next to each other but given the lack of other viable top end options Anthony Davis is a great option to plug in if you have the salary.

Others to Consider:  Domantas Sabonis, Kevin Love

Top Value

Kyle Kuzma

Kyle Kuzma is still returning from an ankle injury, he has the upside to mash his low-4k price tag in that time especially as his minutes keep trending in the right direction. In his four games this year he’s sporting a 23.9% USG rate and averaging 0.90 FPPM. In the last 3 games he’s averaged 24 minutes and it won’t be long before he’s playing his full 30+ minutes a game and getting Kuzma in the 4k’s playing those sort of minutes is about as good as value gets so I’m going to keep rostering until the price goes back into the 6k range where it belongs.

Others to Consider:  Jarrett Allen, Richaun Holmes

Center

Top Play 

Bobby Portis

WIth Mitchell Robinson ruled out with a concussion, Bobby Portis has posted back to back good games and is in line for a 3rd tonight against the Bulls. Ignoring revenge (and Portis does seem to be the vengeful type), Bobby Portis has been averaging 27 minutes sporting a  24.6% usage rate and faces an undersized front court in Wendell Carter Jr and Lauri Markkanen which should make rebounding easier for Portis. Given the value at other positions, most players might pay up at center (and there are good options) but don’t forget about potentially paying down for Portis and using the other money to pay up at some weaker positions.

Others to Consider: Joel Embiid, Andre Drummond, Rudy Gobert

 

 

About CJ Kaltenbach

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