Diving deep into player ownership expectations for 11/12/19 NBA DFS contests.
In this article, we are going to look at the projected most popular player at each position using Awesemo’s ownership projections and determine if the popular play is what we like to call Good Chalk or players that you should be playing or Bad Chalk or players that you should be underweight on. We will be using FanDuel for this article due to the multiple position eligibility for most players on DraftKings
Keep in mind that this article is done mid-day for each large slate and ownership projections can change sometimes drastically as the day goes on.
Verdict: Good Chalk – Joseph will draw the start tonight for the injured De’Aaron Fox. In his past two games, he has broken over 6.5x value and that was with Fox for most of them. Joseph brings veteran leadership to what is overall a pretty young team and we don’t yet see any salary movement to factor in Fox’s injury. Tonight we get Joseph in an uptempo game against the Blazers in what is the highest projected total on the entire slate. As long as Joseph’s usage remains around 20% there is almost no reality where he doesn’t 5x his value.
Verdict: Good Chalk – Much to what I mentioned above will apply to Hield here as he will pick up some of the slack left by the De’Aaron Fox injury. Hield is averaging about 19 FG attempts per game over his last six games and there is now another 15 or so to be distributed in the offense that are being left by Fox. Cory Joseph has never been a guy to attempt a ton of shots so I expect most to trickle down to Hield and Bogdanovic. Speaking of Bogdanovic, he comes in projected as the second-highest projected SG on FanDuel at the time of typing this. His price is $1,400 cheaper than Hield, though both come in at great price points for the matchup. I don’t personally think running out all three is an optimal build, but I think two of them can be used confidently tonight.
Verdict: Bad Chalk – Currently Sampson is projected for ownership in the high 20% though I do think that changes as the day goes on. With only being $3,600, I understand the appeal on a bad SF slate. However, outside of one performance, Sampson hasn’t cracked 5x value at his basement of a price. As the Pacers become healthier, Sampson will fade quickly into oblivion. Us, as DFS players, should leave Sampson on the shelf where he belongs.
Verdict: Bad Chalk – I think once Dedmon is officially ruled in that this projected ownership will change drastically. I also do not think the injury to Fox in the frontcourt will change anything on the backcourt rotation. Holmes has been very hit or miss lately and his price, even at $6,400, is way too high for his minuscule usage rate which has dipped game by game over his last four, bottoming out at a mear 6.6% usage. If Dedmon is ruled out tonight, this is something to be revisited.
Verdict: Undecided – Just two games ago, Embiid saw a ridiculous usage rate of 43% and despite that still finished at 3.3x value and only 35 fantasy points. This is in part to eight turnovers which is a bit of an outlier, though he has struggled with them during his career. With Ben Simmons possibly returning tonight I don’t think paying the premium for Embiid is the play personally. I know Al Horford is also out tonight, but I am not sure that moves the needle as much as some are assuming. I much rather target a Rudy Gobert for $2,600 cheaper in an equally good matchup. Embiid is the guy I like to target at low ownership as he always has the ability to break a slate, but being currently projected at 33% lessens all the leverage you would be hoping to get with Embiid. I lean heavily as calling this bad chalk, though I think the percentage lowers as the day goes on.