Diving deep into player ownership expectations for week 10 NFL DFS contests for the 2019-2020 season.
In this article, we are going to look at the projected most popular player at each position using Awesemo’s ownership projections and determine if the popular play is what we like to call Good Chalk or players that you should be playing or Bad Chalk or players that you should be underweight on.
FanDuel: Lamar Jackson (20.1%)/ DraftKings: Lamar Jackson (17.1%)
Verdict: Undecided- I love Jackson each week as he has such a high floor due to his elite rushing ability. Jackson has at least 40 yards rushing in seven straight games and is averaging 90.14 rushing yards per game during this stretch. That is the level of rushing production you get from elite running backs while also adding in whatever stats he gets with his arm. The running ability has allowed Jackson to produce at least 21 fantasy points in all but one game this season. With that being said I don’t know how I feel about Jackson as chalk this week as he is the most expensive quarterback on this slate and I personally want to spend down at the position as much as possible. I also don’t think that Jackson is used as much as he normally would be as the Ravens should be able to jump out to an early big lead on the winless Bengals and be in cruise control for the rest of the game.
FanDuel: Alvin Kamara (30.6%)/ DraftKings: Alvin Kamara (23.9%)
Verdict: Bad Chalk- If you want to play Kamara I cannot fault you for it. I will have Kamara shares myself. I just don’t think Kamara should be the most popular running back on this slate for two reasons. The first is with the way that Latavius Murray played the past two games with Kamara out I have a feeling we see him start to take snaps and touches away from Kamara. It would not shock me if the backfield splits started to look more like the Kamara/Mark Ingram splits of last season. The second reason is the number of great mid-tier and value options at the running back position. I just don’t feel that you have to spend up for a running back this week.
FanDuel: Michael Thomas (29.9%)/ DraftKings: Michael Thomas (30.7%)
Verdict: Good Chalk- Thomas is the best fantasy wide receiver in the NFL. This season he has at least eight catches in all but one game and has at least 89 receiving yards or a score in every game. Thomas has produced at least 16 fantasy points in each of his games. This week Thomas is going to hit that mark again against a Falcons team that allows the third-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers in a game that has shootout written all over it with a projected total well over 50.
FanDuel: Travis Kelce (26.7%)/ DraftKings: Travis Kelce (13.2%)
Verdict: Good Chalk- Tight end is a bit of a crapshoot this week and it makes sense to lock in the most expensive tight end on this slate Kelce as Kelce is that good. Kelce in what can be considered a down season still has at least four catches in all but one game, over 50 yards receiving in all but one game and at least 9.8 fantasy points in every game.
FanDuel: Browns (16.4%)
Verdict: Bad Chalk- I don’t think the Browns defense is any good at all. This season the Browns defense ranks in the bottom ten in points allowed per game and has only nine takeaways on the season. The Browns defense has not produced above five fantasy points in four straight games. Now, the match-up with the Bills may seem good on paper but it really isn’t as the Bills offense has been a lot better since the bye week. In the three games since the bye, the Bills have not had a giveaway and minus a special teams touchdown on a blocked punt they would have allowed a total of seven fantasy points to opposing defenses.
DraftKings: Colts (12.7%)
Verdict: Good Chalk- Any defense against the Dolphins is good chalk. The Dolphins despite their win last week are just not good. This season they are averaging the third-fewest points per game, have allowed the third-most sacks and have the third-most giveaways. The only defense that didn’t score double-digit fantasy points against them was the Jets last week.