Diving deep into player ownership expectations for 11/8/19 NBA DFS contests.
In this article, we are going to look at the projected most popular player at each position using Awesemo’s ownership projections and determine if the popular play is what we like to call Good Chalk or players that you should be playing or Bad Chalk or players that you should be underweight on. We will be using FanDuel for this article due to the multiple position eligibility for most players on DraftKings
Keep in mind that this article is done mid-day for each large slate and ownership projections can change sometimes drastically as the day goes on.
Verdict: Undecided – This play will be dependant on how value shapes up over the next few hours leading up to lock. As it stands right now, Neto will see the biggest boost with Ben Simmons out though I am not sold on his overall usage yet. Neto did see a usage rate of 22% in 30 minutes once Simmons left the game, but with more time to develop a game plan for tonight, I think Neto may see a large drop. Now, that doesn’t necessarily mean this is a bad play since his price is still so low, but does it warrant chasing a super high owned player? If no more value opens up leading up to lock then I think I lean towards good chalk here.
Verdict: Bad Chalk – Beal is currently projected to be the highest owned SG on the slate and I just don’t think the ceiling is high enough to warrant that at a $9,100 price. Beal has only cracked 50 fantasy points once this ceiling and that was in the absolutely bonkers 158-159 game against Houston. Beal’s overall game just looks off and his driving to the hoop success percentage is down 20% from last year. Beal just does not look like his efficient self right now and maybe a matchup with Cleveland gets him going. However, if 30% of the field wants to chase this play, then I am a-ok letting them and watching from the sidelines.
Verdict: Good Chalk – This is contingent on Napier also being ruled out for the Timberwolves as Jeff Teague already has been. Culver played 30 minutes on Wednesday and looked good scoring 15 points with five rebounds and seven assists which equaled out to 9x value. The price didn’t change much here, only increasing by $300. Sometimes in DFS we overthink or over-analyze a situation but I don’t think this is one. A young exciting player, who should start, at a cheap price. If Shabazz Napier plays, we may need to rethink this, but I think Culver is carving out a role on this team regardless.
Verdict: Undecided – If there was another label I could add here, maybe “fun chalk” then I would say this is the guy. I am not a narrative guy, but Porzingis against the Knicks is a fun one to think about. I do actually think people chase this narrative and while the matchup is fine, Porzingis himself has been wildly inconsistent. In three of his last four games, he has failed to reach 4x value and that is obviously not what we are looking for out of a high priced option. The minutes and usage are fine, albeit a bit down from what you would like to see. I lean bad chalk on this play, but I understand the appeal and will likely have some myself. For transparency’s sake, if I am going to roster someone myself, I can’t in good faith label them bad chalk.
Verdict: Undecided – Jokic for just $8,500 is the reason this will be chalk. Outside of that it sure isn’t because of his recent play. Jokic has dropped from $10,700 to $8,500 in a span of four games and has averaged around 32 fantasy points per game in that stretch. From a fantasy perspective, this just isn’t getting it done. But will I roster Jokic at this price? Likely. I just went back and checked the last two years of data, the last time Jokic was priced this low or under this point was 12-22-17 when Jokic was $8,300. For a two-game stretch in late November last year Jokic was $8,500 for two games. The floor and median expectation for Jokic has been lower than normal this year, but the ceiling still exists and it is massive.