DraftKings MMA Mixed Martial Arts DFS Analysis Picks Plays Advice Strategy

UFC FIGHT NIGHT 162 – October 26, 2019

UNDERDOG PLAYS FOR UFC SINGAPORE


Options are limited in this week’s MMA contests for DFS with an 11 fight slate scheduled for Saturday in Singapore. Identifying good underdog plays are key and I’ve identified three plays with good potential. These are underdog plays and although it shouldn’t be expected to win these fights, they are the dogs with the best potential for fantasy scoring.

DEMIAN MAIA (DK $7,700) – Maia went on a three fight skid beginning in July of 2017. It was as respectable of a skid as any fighter could have losing to the likes of Tyron Woodley, Colby Covington and Kamaru Usman. Since the  the 41 year old has had a return to for winning his last two. He fights Ben Askren on Saturday. Askren has had a questionable run in the UFC, losing to Jorge Masvidal in record time and winning by a controversial stoppage over Robbie Lawler after being bloodied and dropped on his head. We will get to see how Maia’s submission expertise performs against Askren’s high level wrestling

Caveman’s advice: Maia is a very skilled fighter with lots of UFC experience. His ability to complicate things for Askren even on his back make him an attractive underdog play. Askren’s best chance at winning will be to control the fight on the ground and find a win by decision. I like Maia’s upset potential over five rounds of grappling. It only takes one good opportunity for a submission specialist like Demian to put an end to a fight like this. Give Maia play in multi-entry contests due to his low salary and submission potential. I redcommend 30-40% usage in these contests. I like Maia as a cash play as well due to his five round schedule and salary well below $8K.

(At the time of this writing, Demian Maia is +139 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 62.40 on Fantasy Cruncher.)  

MAURICE GREENE (DK $7,200) – Greene has the second highest average of all fighters on Saturday with 98.0 FPPF. He is 3-0 in the UFC with two first round finishes. At 6’7″ he has a four inch height advantage over Sergei Pavlovich. Pavlovich is currently 1-1 in the UFC and is a favorite to finish Greene before the final bell. Greene is a decided underdog here but has a solid chance at upsetting primiarly due to his submission game. Half of his professional victories have come by submission. In the UFC so far he has one first round submission victory, one first round TKO victory and one victory by decision. He has never been knocked out.

Caveman’s advice: Take a chance on Greene on Saturday. Underdogs rarely have this much potential. Pavlovich is very dangerous but if Greene can take the fight to the ground, he has excellent potential for a submission. At such a low salary, he can leave money to spend on some bigger favorites in your lineups. Give him 35-45% exposure in your lineups for DFS contests on Saturday.

(At the time of this writing, Maurice Greene is +197 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 40.57 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

ALEXANDRA ALBU (DK $8,000) – Albu is 2-1 in the octagon with one submission victory and a decision win where she accumulated 82 significant strikes over three rounds. She lost her last fight to Emily Whitmire and as a result her stock is a bit down. She is a small underdog to UFC newcomer Loma Lookboonmee who should be outclassed in this one.

Caveman’s advice: Albu deserves to be the betting favorite here and appears to be the fighter with the better finishing potential in this matchup. Her average fantasy in victories is 96.5 FPPF and should get a fair number of lineups in DFS contests on Saturday. She is the most expensive fighter on this list, however, and her cost reduces her value. Still, her salary is below average and she should get in the range of 20-30% exposure in your lineups.

(At the time of this writing, Aleksandra Albu is +106 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 57.86 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!

 

About Rob

Since getting out of the casino business, Rob has been playing DFS regularly with a focus on MMA and NASCAR. He now lives in Denver, CO.

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