MLB Playoffs 2019 – DFS Strategy for the October 16, 2019 single game slate.
Breaking down some of the top plays and strategies for attacking the MLB Playoff DFS slate on FanDuel & DraftKings.
The rain forecast for New York tonight is not looking very baseball-friendly.
There is quite a bit of speculation and chatter around the media that the match-up scheduled for this evening will get pushed to tomorrow instead. Given the severity of the rain risk and lack of wanting to have anything take place today that won’t guarantee a full 9 inning game, I totally get the potential for this to be moved as a postponement would help avoid a messy in-game delay or next-day finish.
Here are 3 things to think about today, if a game does in fact happen to get in (low probability at this point)
1. Both teams tonight are looking at this as a bullpen game, unless it’s postponed to tomorrow
Here’s a good take on the pitching situations for both teams, should we see this game either take place tonight or be pushed to tomorrow:
If we’re looking at a game getting in today, the bullpens will take center stage.
2. We don’t have a game total to work with right now, and likely won’t until “starters” are announced
This would be a bit trickier to handicap from a DFS perspective, but based on some of the metrics I’m sharing per the below – I’d expect a bullpen game to be in the 8.0 +/- 1.0 runs territory, with a slight edge to the home team (think -120 or so).
3. By the numbers, the Astros have a more dangerous bullpen
Their pitching staff this year has been the best in the business against LHBs, holding them to the lowest opponent wOBA in baseball (.281), while the Yankees ranked 10th in the league for the split with a .317 mark.
The comparison is similar when you look at it against RHBs, but the Astros drop to 5th (.296 wOBA) and the Yankees check in at 16th (.318 wOBA).
The Astros’ bullpen has the lowest xFIP in the league for the 2019 season (4.06) while the Yankees trail slightly behind that (4.15). However, the WAR metrics on Fangraphs give the advantage to NYY (7.5 vs 4.3 for HOU).
Both teams rank top 5 in the league for K/9 (Yankees at #3, Astros at #5) and have HR/9s over 1.3.
All of this would suggest giving an edge to the RHBs on both teams, and luckily that’s where both team’s strengths lie. The usual suspects in the upper part of the order would be your core plays, with some lower-half skill being where you’d want to sprinkle in some exposure.
Even though I doubt we’ll be playing MLB DFS today, I’ll wish you the best of luck with your entries!