Welcome to the FC Insights Quarterback Targets Article. In this post, we will be breaking down our top options and plays at the QB position for each DFS week of the 2019-2020 NFL DFS season.
In this article, I am going to give you the top five quarterbacks in my personal model which uses a number of factors like Vegas total, match-up, salary, etc. Please note that just because a player is not in this article doesn’t mean that I don’t like them or that they are not in my player pool.
Last Weeks Results
Based off of DraftKings scoring
- Kyler Murray (31.80 fantasy points, 4.9x value, QB3)
- Matt Ryan (33.94 fantasy points, 5.3x value, QB1)
- Gardner Minshew II (5.62 fantasy points, 1.1x value, QB18)
- Patrick Mahomes (20.82 fantasy points, 2.8x value, QB10)
- Kirk Cousins (31.32 fantasy points, 6.0x value, QB5)
Jared Goff ($7,800 FD, $6,200 DK)
Goff stunk it up last week in a tough match-up against the 49ers but he is my top overall quarterback this week for two reasons. The first of those reasons is the fact that Goff prior to last week was playing great. Goff had at least 395 yards passing in each of the two games prior to last week and had produced at least 17 fantasy points in four straight games. The second reason and main reason why Goff is my top overall play is the match-up with the Falcons. The Falcons pass defense is bad like really bad. This season the Falcons are allowing the sixth-most passing yards per game and have allowed the second-most passing touchdowns. The Falcons have allowed each of the past five quarterbacks they have faced to produce at least 19 fantasy points and for the season are allowing a league-high 26.4 fantasy points per game to the position using DraftKings scoring. This game between the Rams and Falcons also has the highest projected total on the slate by a lot as it is currently the only game on the slate projected for over 50 points.
Matt Ryan ($7,900 FD, $6,300 DK)
Ryan looks like he is going to be an elite play the whole season due to the sheer volume of passing attempts that Ryan is seeing. Ryan is averaging 43 passing attempts this season and has 12 more passing attempts than the next closest quarterback on the list Jared Goff. That volume has lead to big games from Ryan as he has at least 300 yards passing in each game this season, is second in the NFL in passing yards, and first in passing touchdowns. Ryan has at least 19 fantasy points in each game and is averaging 27.4 fantasy points which are the second-highest on the slate. Ryan is not only producing but the match-up is also a positive one. As I mentioned earlier the Rams-Falcons game has the highest projected total on this slate at 53.5 points. The Rams have also shown that they can struggle against the pass at times this season. The Rams only allowed 13.12 fantasy points to Jimmy Garoppolo last week but in the two weeks prior they allowed four touchdown passes to both Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston while allowing both quarterbacks to produce over 29 fantasy points.
Josh Allen ($7,700 FD, $6,500 DK)
Allen is an easy pick for me this week as a pivot off of the Rams-Falcons game. There are two reasons why I like Allen as a pivot. The first is the fact that Allen continues to put up fantasy numbers. Allen has at least 18 fantasy points in all but one game this season and in nine of his past 11 games dating back to last season. In those games, Allen is averaging 22.81 fantasy points. The second reason is the match-up with the Dolphins. The Dolphins have allowed at least two touchdown passes to each quarterback they have faced this season, are allowing the seventh-most passing yards per game, and the third-most fantasy points per game to the position.
Kyler Murray ($7,700 FD, $6,700 DK)
This season, Murray has at least 17 fantasy points in each game this season and is only one of three quarterbacks to hit that mark in each game with the other two being Matt Ryan and Patrick Mahomes. Murray has been especially great the past two weeks for those who have rostered him as he has produced 25.42 and 31.8 fantasy points. This week we can easily expect another big game from Murray as he takes on a poor Giants secondary. This season the Giants have allowed the second-most passing yards per game at 285. The Giants secondary is not only poor but they are also a decent match-up for running quarterbacks as they have only allowed 68 rushing yards to the position they have allowed three rushing touchdowns which are second-most in the NFL.
Gardner Minshew II ($6,900 FD, $5,400 DK)
Minshew let us down last week but you should not let last week stop you from rostering Minshew this week. The reason why you should not let last week stop you from rostering Minshew this week is the fact he is still dirt cheap and in a great bounce-back spot against the Bengals. The Bengals have allowed at least 16 fantasy points to every quarterback they have faced this season and are allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to the position. Now, I know most of the Bengals fantasy points allowed to the position the last two weeks has been on the ground as they allowed both Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson to run for over 90 yards and a score but that should also not bother you when it comes to Minshew as believe it or not he can run the ball. Minshew has at least four rushing attempts in three games this season and has at least 40 rushing yards in two games this season. Minshew should throw his normal two touchdown passes while adding in 20 plus yards on the ground and produce 16 plus fantasy points which are all he needs at this price point.