MLB Playoffs 2019 – DFS Strategy for the October 15, 2019 slates.
Breaking down some of the top plays and strategies for attacking the MLB Playoff DFS slate on FanDuel & DraftKings.
There are a handful of contests available for you to play today, with 2 games taking place and both 2-game and single-game slates with nice prize pools.
Some of the more attractive ones to take part in are the single slates, particularly in the later part of the day with STL @ WAS playing in game 4 of their series.
I’ll point out key stats in the respective match-ups that are interesting to consider, recent optimal lineup lessons learned and perhaps some strategic insights that will hopefully help crunch stronger lineups.
#1 – For the 2 game slates, Luis Severino is a bargain
The Yankees are the home dogs, simply because Gerrit Cole is opposing him. That’s driven down the win probability to 41% here, but the fact is that he’s throwing the ball extremely well right now with only 2 ER allowed in 16 innings of work since making his return from the IL.
I have no problem pairing him with Cole on DK or running him solo on FD where you want to spend some extra cash on your bats.
#2 – Patrick Corbin leads the slate with a 62% win probability and 3.27 opponent total, but is a risky start
The Nats haven’t had a ton of confidence in Corbin since he was destroyed by the Dodgers in his first postseason start, giving up 6 ER in just 0.2 IP.
So, he’s been coming out of the bullpen since then, throwing 1.2 scoreless, hitless innings while being leveraged in good spots.
That little blip in time could throw a bit of a wrench in his routine, even though at least one of those would have been his “throwing” day.
He should get good ownership on 2 game slates and perhaps the Captain spot on DK Showdown – but I do worry a little bit that the RP appearances could throw him for a loop and perhaps struggle even though the Nats are in a great spot to grab the series sweep. I don’t think the Cards are going to go down quietly, and the RHB splits against him are the better spot for exposure (and their lineup strength overall).
#3 – Dakota Hudson has extremely poor splits vs LHBs
After watching the righty live a few times this year, I do believe he will have a productive big league career. He has very good stuff and mound presence – just needs to get a little better command.
However, lefties are a major weakness for him, with a near .350 wOBA split and almost 45% hard hit rate against them. Juan Soto is in a great spot here.
#4 – The Cards and Nats are the more affordable teams to stack
Given their price points and attractiveness of Gerrit Cole (2 game slates), the Cards and Nats are going to be awfully popular today.
In fact, the default lineup that our FC Lineup Cruncher spits out when you crunch an optimal lineup without making any edits to our projections model (as of 9:00am EST), features a full STL stack (4 bats) with WAS secondary (3 bats).
I’d give a boost to Soto (over Rendon) given the extreme split for Hudson – but you shouldn’t be surprised if this is the approach the cruncher recommends if you are going the Cole route. HOU are more affordable on DK given the cheap SP2 option(s) there to pair with Cole as they’ve really made an effort to have the SPs be more affordable.
#5 – The WAS/STL match-up features the juiciest games, and I feel like Juan Soto is a hard Captain to avoid
Soto has been quiet the last few games, but has elite power, has been just shy of getting a hold of a couple balls, but has come up in big moments so far this postseason.
This is probably the best match-up that you could wish for on a single game slate. Soto has 43 home runs in 257 games (659 AB) over the last couple years, with a ridiculout .408 wOBA and .270 ISO in the split.
You can build a very good lineup (or lineups, if going GPP style which is a fun route) with him as your anchor – particularly because I think we’ll see plenty of scoring on both ends.
Best of luck today!