MLB Playoffs 2019 – DFS Strategy for the October 14, 2019 single game slate.
Breaking down some of the top plays and strategies for attacking the MLB Playoff DFS slate on FanDuel & DraftKings.
With single game slates dominating the DFS landscape in MLB right now, I’m going to switch the format of our baseball articles to a “5 things to think about” structure.
I’ll point out key stats in the respective match-ups that are interesting to consider, recent optimal lineup lessons learned and perhaps some strategic insights that will hopefully help crunch stronger lineups.
#1 – The strength of each team’s starting pitcher
Both of these righties are incredibly strong hurlers, each striking out over 230 batters in the regular season and having a combined ERA of just over 6.0 runs.
It shouldn’t shock us if the game trends under the 7.0 projected runs here, especially with how much success each have had throwing in the playoffs over the course of their careers. Flaherty has amassed a 2.77 ERA in his 2 NLDS starts, and Strasburg now has a sparkling 1.32 ERA in his 6 career postseason starts.
#2 – RHBs have the stronger HR/9 splits than LHBs against these starters
Right-handed batters have an average of 1.21 HR/9 for this game considering both pitcher’s splits, while left-handed batters have a 1.07 HR/9 mark. While not a massive delta, it’s a 13% higher mark – and both of these teams tend to feature stronger RHB-oriented power given the strength of their lineups.
Moral of the story – don’t be shy to look at RvR exposure.
#3 – The last single slate for this series featured Michael Taylor as the optimal play
Baseball DFS can really be frustrating, and we saw exactly that when Taylor went 2 for 4 with a long ball in what turned out to be an anti-script game where Adam Wainwright had one of the best starts in his last 2-3 years but still saw the Cardinals lose and go down 2 games in the series.
No matter how elite all the metrics may be for the season-long names like Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner, Paul Goldschmidt or Marcell Ozuna – baseball can always bite you in the bum and throw you a good curveball.
But – don’t be discouraged. When you’re playing single game slates like this, you often look at it from a GPP perspective where you don’t need to cash every time to be profitable. Stick with the process and don’t vary your strategy.
Michael Taylor is not all of a sudden the smartest play in MLB DFS today.
#4 – Stephen Strasburg has a very good chance at putting the Nats up 3-0 in this series
Over the last 3 years, the Cardinals have a total of 72 plate appearances against him (64 official at bats), and only 1 active hitter has more than a single against him (Marcell Ozuna – who is only 6/22 with a long ball).
The Cards have a .601 OPS and .047 ISO against him in those 72 PA, and have a 26.6% K% against the Nats’ stud righty.
Don’t be surprised if he has lots of success against this lineup and guides the Nats to a low-scoring win (think 3-2 or 2-1 kind of game).
#5 – Strasburg can be run on – a SB threat could be a strong play in this game
There’s some value to be had here given STL bats should be lower own% names – and a fantasy-point accruing situation like this could certainly be fruitful.
Best of luck today!