DraftKings MMA Mixed Martial Arts DFS Analysis Picks Plays Advice Strategy

UFC FIGHT NIGHT 161 – October 12, 2019

SCORING POTENTIAL IN UFC TAMPA 


The UFC goes to Tampa on Saturday with some great fights in store for fight fans. With fourteen fights scheduled, this week’s DFS contests give a lot of fighters to choose from. I’ve identified four fights that should get a lot of play.

MACKENZIE DERN (DK $8,300) vs AMANDA RIBAS (DK $7,900)

Together, Mackenzie Dern and Amanda Ribas combine for the highest average FPPF of any fight on Saturday. Mackenzie Dern has an average of 94.8 FPPF in her two UFC fights to date. She is 2-0 in the octagon with a decision victory over Ashley Yoder and a first round submission of Amanda Cooper. Amanda Ribas is 1-0 in the UFC with a second round submission victory over Emily Whitmire in her octagon debut where she tallied 99.5 points. Dern comes into the fight as the favorite due largely to her superior BJJ background. She is, however, fighting again for the first time since giving birth just four months ago.

Caveman’s advice: The price is right for this pair of fighters who both have high scoring potential. Although there are reasonable concerns over how Dern will return after her pregnancy, she is the more accomplished grappler and I like her chances to submit here. Play this fight in moderation but multi-entry contests, do not overlook the potential of this fight. Give the fight 50-60% exposure with a 75/25 split in favor of Dern.

(At the time of this writing, Mackenzie Dern is -146 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 64.61 on Fantasy Cruncher. Amanda Ribas is +122 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 55.16 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

KRON GRACIE (DK $8,700) vs CUB SWANSON (DK $7,500)

These fighters combine for the second highest combined FPPF of the evening. Gracie brings the pedigree and BJJ expertise while Swanson brings a wealth of octagon experience. Gracie will be determined to make this a grappling affair, while Swanson will do everything to keep this fight upright. Swanson will have an advantage if he can stay on his feet, but if Gracie can take things to the mat, his chances are thin against the submission expert. Over his last ten fights, Cub Swanson is 4-6 with four of his six losses coming by submission. In his eleven professional defeats, seven have come by submission.

Caveman’s advice: Cub Swanson’s most glaring weakness is his submission defense and on Saturday he will face one of the best grapplers on the planet. This is a bad matchup for him and presents big opportunity for Gracie who is priced well below $9K in salary. Kron Gracie will get plenty of play from me and is one of my favorite cash plays for Saturday’s contests. In multi-entry contests, I will give Cub a puncher’s chance in a limited number of lineups as well. Give this fight 70-80% exposure with an 80/20 split favoring Kron Gracie.

(At the time of this writing, Kron Gracie is -187 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 65.91 on Fantasy Cruncher. Cub Swanson is +148 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 47.81 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

JOANNA JEDRZEJCZYK (DK $9,200) vs MICHELLE WATERSON (DK $7,000)

This matchup should present good scoring potential as these fighters combine for the fourth highest FPPF of all fights on Saturday and they will have two additional rounds of scoring potential as the Main Event fight. There were rumors that Joanna Jedrzejczyk wouldn’t make weight but she had no problems with that on Friday and looks prepared to return to 115 lbs where she was much more dominant than at 125 lbs. She is the second biggest favorite of the evening and should be able to score consistently over a five round fight. Although she has lost three out of four fights, they were quality losses with two of them at the hands of former strawweight champion Rose Namajunas and the other to current flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko.

Caveman’s advice: Look for Jedrzejczyk to return to form against Waterson on Saturday. She has much more experience in championship rounds having gone past the third round in six of her last eight fights. Waterson has only gone past the third round once. This fight is a big favorite to go the full five rounds and Joanna will have the experience advantage. Expect her to accumulate a lot of significant strikes over five rounds and score well as a result. Her salary is high but she should be worth the price. Give this fight 60-70% exposure in multi-entry fights with a 90/10 split favoring Jedrzejczyk who is also a great cash play on Saturday.

(At the time of this writing, Joanna Jedrzejczyk is -352 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 96.80 on Fantasy Cruncher. Michelle Waterson is +273 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 53.76 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

RYAN SPANN (DK $8,800) vs DEVIN CLARK (DK $7,400)

Ryan Spann is on a tear having won six in a row with five of those victories by way of a first round finish. Devin Clark has a great deal more experience in the UFC, however, and will have a chance at victory if he can keep the fight off the mat where Spann has ten submission victories out of his sixteen professional wins. These light heavyweights should bring a fair amount of scoring potential to the octagon on Saturday.

Caveman’s advice: Coming in under $9K, Spann is priced well. He has a great opportunity to bring this fight to an early conclusion and is a favorite to finish this fight before the final bell. Look for a conclusion bonus for the winner of this one. Clark should get some play as well in multi-entry contests due to his low salary against a lesser experienced fighter. Spann is the much better play here, however. Give this fight 60-70% exposure with a 70/30 split favoring Ryan Spann in multi-entry contests. Consider Spann as a solid play in cash contests as well.

(At the time of this writing, Ryan Spann is -163 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 64.49 on Fantasy Cruncher. Devin Clark is +137 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 48.46 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!

About Rob

Since getting out of the casino business, Rob has been playing DFS regularly with a focus on MMA and NASCAR. He now lives in Denver, CO.

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