MLB Playoffs 2019 – DFS Strategy & Cheat Sheet for October 12, 2019
Breaking down some of the top plays and strategies for attacking the MLB Playoff DFS slate on FanDuel & DraftKings.
Both Championship Series take place on Saturday afternoon/evening, and each of the main sites have created some pretty solid contests for us to dabble in.
The Yankees/Astros game has a total of 9.0 runs, with Greinke and the ‘Stros being 61% favorites. Meanwhile the Cardinals/Nationals game is playing to a 7.0 run total, with the visiting Nationals sitting as 57% favorites.
Scherzer holds the lowest opponent total (3.3 runs) and Tanaka holds the highest (5.0 runs).
Greinke and Scherzer grade out as the 2 arms with the most skill, holding SIERAs of 3.32 or less in their last month worth of action.
Greinke looked incredibly human in his first playoff start against the Rays, and I expect the Yankees to be even more successful against him given the raw strength of their lineup. He’s a little overpriced for me on FanDuel ($9,600) and a fade candidate there – while the $6,800 price tag on DraftKings does give him some appeal given he holds the slate’s heaviest win probability.
Scherzer was very good in his last start against the Ddogers, holding them to 1 ER in 7 innings with 7 Ks – and the Cardinals are a team he’s had some good success against in the K department over the last few years.
In 5 starts against them, he has 10+ Ks in 4 of them, even though he’s allowed 8 ER in 13.2 IP against them this year.
On FanDuel, Scherzer is the chalk play – but for the price he will really restrict the number of high-end bats we can roster. The NYY/HOU game will be popular for exposure, and the core hitters there are going to be hard to have much ownership of given how pricey he is at the outset.
On DraftKings, he’s easier to find room for given we can offset him with a sub-$7K SP2. Since he has a good path to 20+ DKP and none of the other SPs are easy to project for anything near that – he’s a more obvious SP1 lock to me.
The best hitter splits today:
- LHBs vs Adam Wainwright (.359 wOBA dating back to the start of 2018 and a whopping 1.55 HR/9)
- LHBs vs Masahiro Tanaka (.322 wOBA since 2018 and a 1.32 HR/9)
- RHBs vs Wainwright/Tanaka (.301 wOBAs since 2018)
- Tanaka allowing a crazy 1.49 HR/9 to RHBs while Wainwright typically keeps the ball in the yard
The worst hitter splits today:
The HRs that Tanaka generally allows makes this a really healthy one for HOU exposure. Especially given the tremendous HR power that the Astros possess – in a good hitting environment. Greinke has been very human lately, and allows plenty of hard contact. If he makes mistakes, the Yankees will punish him. This game is highly stackable – but you’ll need to make some compromises on the mound to afford 6+ core bats from HOU/NYY.
Check out our cheat sheet below for key plays we’re liking on this slate.
$ Tier P C 1B 2B 3B SS OF High Max Scherzer (10.2k / 20.46) (11.4k / 36.46) Gary Sanchez (4k / 6.18) (3.6k / 8.06) Edwin Encarnacion (4.5k / 10.22) (3.8k / 13.33) Jose Altuve (4.7k / 12.66) (4.3k / 16.51) Alex Bregman (5.1k / 13.36) (4.4k / 17.42) Trea Turner (4.6k / 9.93) (4.3k / 12.95) Yordan Alvarez (4.7k / 10.76) (3.8k / 14.03) DJ LeMahieu (4.6k / 10.35) (3.8k / 13.49) Anthony Rendon (4.9k / 9.93) (4k / 12.95) Juan Soto (4.8k / 9.48) (3.7k / 12.36) George Springer (4.9k / 12.66) (4.1k / 16.51) Aaron Judge (4.4k / 10.59) (4.2k / 13.81) Medium Robinson Chirinos (3.6k / 3.69) (2.5k / 4.81) Howie Kendrick (4.3k / 7.03) (2.7k / 9.16) Gleyber Torres (4.4k / 9.98) (3.7k / 13.01) Michael Brantley (4.1k / 10.55) (3.4k / 13.75) Yulieski Gurriel (4.1k / 8.00) (3.1k / 10.43) Brett Gardner (4k / 6.91) (3.1k / 9.01) Low Zack Greinke (6.8k / 15.64) (9.6k / 27.86) Yan Gomes (3.2k / 0.38) (2.5k / 0.49) Didi Gregorius (3.9k / 3.76) (3.2k / 4.90) Adam Eaton (3.7k / 7.70) (3.2k / 10.04) Adam Wainwright (6.1k / 15.15) (8k / 26.99) Josh Reddick (3.4k / 0.50) (2.6k / 0.65) Giancarlo Stanton (3.9k / 8.20) (3.5k / 10.70)
Best of luck out there!